Trump Approval Rating Takes Another Turn

President Donald Trump is facing a difficult new warning from American voters as concerns over the Iran war, gasoline prices and the economy continue to shape the political landscape ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Trump’s approval rating falling to 33%, the lowest recorded level of his current presidency. Meanwhile, 64% of Americans surveyed said they disapprove of the job he is doing in the White House.

The findings could become an important political test for Trump and congressional Republicans as they work to defend their majorities in Washington this November.

Trump’s latest approval number is down from 35% in an earlier Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted this month. It also matches the lowest approval rating recorded by Reuters/Ipsos during his first term, reached in December 2017.

Trump returned to the White House in 2025 with considerably stronger public support. But the political environment has changed as the conflict with Iran has dragged on and disruptions to global oil supplies have contributed to higher energy costs.

For many Americans, the issue now extends beyond foreign policy. The impact is increasingly being felt at home, particularly when drivers fill up their vehicles or families calculate their monthly household expenses.

Iran War Becomes Major Political Challenge for Trump

Trump has long argued that preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon is essential to American and global security.

His administration’s military campaign against Iran, launched alongside Israel, was initially expected to produce results relatively quickly. Instead, the conflict has persisted, while disruptions involving the Strait of Hormuz have created additional uncertainty for global energy markets.

The Strait of Hormuz is particularly important because a substantial portion of the world’s petroleum trade normally moves through the strategic waterway.

That means developments thousands of miles from the United States can quickly affect oil markets and eventually the price Americans pay for gasoline.

The latest polling suggests voters are increasingly skeptical that the conflict will end soon.

According to Reuters/Ipsos, 80% of Americans believe U.S. involvement with Iran will continue for an extended period.

That concern crosses party lines.

Among Democrats, 87% expect a prolonged American involvement, while 71% of Republicans said the same. Only 16% of Americans surveyed believe the conflict is likely to conclude within a few weeks.

Those numbers could prove politically significant because Trump has repeatedly positioned himself as a president determined to protect America’s interests without becoming trapped in endless foreign conflicts.

Trump Defends Cost of Higher Gas Prices

Trump has defended his Iran strategy even as Americans confront higher gasoline prices.

During a recent political rally in Garden City, New York, the president argued that paying somewhat more for gasoline was justified if the ultimate result was preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

The argument presents voters with a difficult question: How much economic pain are Americans willing to accept in exchange for what the administration considers an important national security objective?

Trump and his supporters can argue that allowing a hostile Iranian government to acquire nuclear weapons could create far greater dangers and costs in the future.

Critics, however, are questioning whether the military campaign has delivered enough progress to justify its economic and geopolitical consequences.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll found that only about one in five Americans believes the war has been worth it.

Republican voters are considerably more supportive than the country overall, but even within the GOP, only about half said the conflict has been worthwhile.

Gas Prices Put Household Budgets Back in Spotlight

For Americans over 50, energy costs can be particularly noticeable because many households are living on fixed or carefully planned budgets.

Higher gasoline prices don’t stop at the pump.

Transportation expenses can affect the cost of moving food, manufactured products and other goods across the country. When businesses face higher operating costs, consumers can ultimately feel some of those pressures through higher prices.

That makes energy policy especially important heading into the November elections.

Trump campaigned heavily on bringing prices under control after several years of inflation became a major source of frustration for American families.

Republicans are therefore under pressure to convince voters that their policies remain the best path toward affordable energy, economic growth and lower household expenses.

If gasoline prices decline before Election Day, Republicans could benefit.

If they remain elevated, Democrats are almost certain to make affordability one of their central campaign arguments.

Democrats Gain Ground on the Economy

Perhaps one of the more concerning developments for Republicans involves an issue the GOP has traditionally viewed as one of its strongest: the economy.

The latest Reuters/Ipsos polling shows 38% of voters believe Democrats have the better approach to managing the economy, compared with 35% who favor Republicans.

That is a notable shift.

Republicans have frequently held an advantage with voters on economic issues over the past decade, particularly when emphasizing lower taxes, domestic energy production, reduced regulation and private-sector growth.

Democrats now see an opportunity to make the 2026 midterms a referendum on prices and household affordability.

The cost of living could prove especially important.

Groceries, electricity, housing, insurance, healthcare and gasoline are everyday expenses that voters experience personally. Economic statistics may look impressive on paper, but families often judge the economy based on how much money remains in their bank accounts after the monthly bills are paid.

That reality creates an urgent political challenge for the White House.

Immigration Remains a Stronger Issue for Republicans

There is better news for Trump when it comes to immigration and border security.

The Trump administration has made immigration enforcement a major priority since returning to office, overseeing a substantial decline in illegal border crossings while expanding enforcement operations throughout the country.

Republicans continue to hold an advantage over Democrats on immigration policy, according to the latest poll.

About 40% of registered voters say Republicans have the better approach to immigration, compared with 38% who favor Democrats.

However, the size of that Republican advantage has narrowed dramatically.

In January 2025, Republicans enjoyed a 26-point advantage on immigration in Reuters/Ipsos polling. The latest two-point margin therefore represents a significant change in public sentiment.

Recent controversies involving immigration enforcement and detention policies have given Democrats an opportunity to challenge Republicans on an issue where the GOP previously enjoyed a commanding advantage.

Still, Trump can point to reduced border crossings as evidence that his tougher immigration policies have produced measurable results.

2026 Midterm Elections Raise the Stakes

The November 3 midterm elections could determine whether Republicans maintain control of Congress during the final two years of Trump’s current term.

Republicans are defending a narrow House majority, meaning relatively small changes in voter sentiment could determine control of the chamber.

Democrats are also hoping the changing political environment will improve their chances in Senate contests.

That makes Trump’s approval rating especially important.

Presidents are not technically on the ballot during midterm elections, but voters frequently use congressional elections to express approval or dissatisfaction with the administration currently controlling the White House.

Republican candidates will therefore have to decide how closely to align themselves with Trump while addressing voter concerns about gasoline prices, inflation and the Iran conflict.

Trump Still Has Time to Change the Political Environment

Polls represent a snapshot of public opinion, not a prediction of what will happen on Election Day.

Several developments could dramatically reshape the political environment between now and November.

A breakthrough in negotiations with Iran could ease concerns about a prolonged military conflict. Increased movement of oil through the Strait of Hormuz could reduce pressure on global energy markets. Falling gasoline prices could also improve Americans’ perceptions of the economy.

Trump could additionally benefit if voters return their attention to immigration, border security, taxes, crime and other issues where Republicans believe their policies offer a clear contrast with Democrats.

But the latest numbers show that the White House has work to do.

With Trump’s approval rating at 33%, widespread concern about the duration of the Iran conflict and Democrats gaining ground on economic issues, Republicans face a challenging political environment heading toward the 2026 midterms.

The question now is whether Trump can convince voters that short-term economic sacrifices are necessary to achieve larger national security goals — and whether Americans will see enough progress before they cast their ballots in November.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online among 1,166 U.S. adults nationwide and carries a margin of error of approximately three percentage points in either direction.