This was shocking to see for conservatives across America.
President Donald Trump helped propel Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton to a major Republican primary victory, but a surprising new poll suggests the general election battle may be far from over.
Just days after defeating longtime Senator John Cornyn in a hard-fought GOP runoff, Paxton is facing an unexpected challenge from Democratic State Representative James Talarico.
According to a newly released Texas Public Opinion Research survey, Talarico currently holds a narrow lead among likely Texas voters. The poll shows Talarico receiving 47 percent support compared to Paxton’s 44 percent.
The results have sparked fresh debate about whether Republicans could face a more competitive Senate race in Texas than many expected.
Why Republicans Are Paying Attention
Texas has long been considered one of the most reliable Republican states in the nation. However, early warning signs are beginning to emerge for the GOP following the bruising primary battle between Paxton and Cornyn.
Political analysts note that primary elections often leave divisions within a party, and the latest polling appears to reflect some of that fallout.
A notable portion of Cornyn’s former supporters have not yet fully united behind Paxton.
The survey found that nearly one-third of Cornyn voters are currently planning to support the Democratic nominee in November. Another 44 percent say they will vote for Paxton, while a sizable group remains undecided.
Those numbers could become critical in what may be one of the most closely watched Senate races in America.
Race Rating Shifts After Paxton Victory
The new poll comes shortly after election analysts adjusted their outlook on the race.
Following Paxton’s primary win, prominent election forecasters moved the contest from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican,” signaling growing uncertainty about the final outcome.
While Republicans still maintain advantages in Texas, the shift suggests Democrats see an opportunity to make the race more competitive than originally anticipated.
Democrats Target Paxton’s Legal Controversies
Talarico has wasted little time going on offense.
The Democratic candidate has made Paxton’s legal history a central focus of his campaign messaging, highlighting past investigations and controversies that have followed the attorney general for years.
Paxton was indicted on securities fraud charges in 2015 and later faced impeachment proceedings initiated by Republican lawmakers in Texas in 2023. Although he was ultimately acquitted and remained in office, Democrats continue to point to those events as reasons voters should consider a change.
Talarico has argued that voters should compare his legislative accomplishments with Paxton’s lengthy list of political and legal battles.
Republicans Push Back
Republicans are responding aggressively.
Paxton and his supporters have highlighted Talarico’s progressive positions on social and cultural issues, arguing that his views are out of step with many Texas voters.
The campaign has increasingly become a clash between two very different visions for the future of Texas.
As both sides escalate their attacks, political observers expect advertising spending to surge in the months ahead.
Trump Promises To Get Involved
President Trump is not sitting on the sidelines.
Following Paxton’s primary victory, Trump issued a sharp criticism of Talarico and promised to actively campaign on behalf of the Republican nominee.
The president pledged to hold large rallies in Texas and help energize conservative voters ahead of Election Day.
For many Republicans, Trump’s involvement could prove decisive.
His endorsement helped Paxton defeat Cornyn in the primary, and GOP strategists hope his popularity among Texas conservatives will help unify the party and boost voter turnout.
The Road Ahead
Despite the headlines generated by the new poll, the race remains in its early stages.
Millions of dollars in campaign spending, presidential involvement, national media attention, and months of voter outreach still lie ahead.
What is clear, however, is that Republicans are no longer treating this race as an automatic victory.
For President Trump and Texas Republicans, the latest survey serves as a reminder that even in a traditionally conservative state, no election can be taken for granted.
With control of key Senate seats carrying enormous political importance, all eyes will now turn to Texas as one of the nation’s most important battlegrounds heading into November.
The Texas Public Opinion Research survey was conducted May 27-28 among 1,670 likely voters and carries a margin of error of approximately 2.8 percentage points.