President Donald Trump and Republicans are getting an uncomfortable warning from two of the biggest states in America as the 2026 midterm elections move into their final weeks.
New Senate polling from Texas and Alaska — the two largest U.S. states by land area — shows Democratic candidates performing surprisingly well against Republicans.
The numbers do not determine what will happen on Election Day, but they could be enough to get the attention of Trump, Senate Republican leaders and conservative voters across the country.
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the U.S. Senate. Democrats would need a net gain of four seats to take control of the chamber.
That makes every competitive Senate race important, particularly in states Republicans have traditionally expected to win.
Texas Senate Race Delivers Warning For Republicans
Perhaps the biggest surprise comes from Texas.
Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by 51% to 45%, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll released Saturday.
A Democratic lead in Texas is significant because the Lone Star State has remained one of the Republican Party’s most important political strongholds.
The poll also contained concerning numbers for Trump.
According to the survey, 40% of Texas respondents approved of the president’s job performance, while 57% disapproved.
Talarico’s six-point advantage is slightly outside the poll’s reported 4.5-percentage-point margin of error.
The result also appears stronger for Democrats than some broader polling averages have suggested.
Another recent Marist College survey reportedly showed Talarico ahead of Paxton by six points as well.
One poll can change quickly, especially in a major statewide race. But when multiple surveys show a similar pattern, campaigns tend to pay attention.
For Republicans, losing a Senate seat in Texas would be a major setback.
Trump won Texas in 2024, and GOP candidates have dominated statewide races there for years. A competitive Senate contest could therefore force national Republicans to spend additional money and campaign resources in a state they would normally expect to keep.
Alaska Could Become Another Problem For GOP
Republicans are also facing a potentially difficult race in Alaska.
Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by 50% to 43% in the latest poll.
That gives Peltola a seven-point advantage.
Like Texas, Alaska has typically favored Republican candidates in national elections, making the result noteworthy.
Sullivan is an incumbent senator, while Peltola is already well known to Alaska voters after previously serving the state in the U.S. House.
A Democratic victory in Alaska would represent another important pickup in the party’s effort to gain control of the Senate.
If Democrats were somehow able to win both Texas and Alaska, Republicans would suddenly find themselves under substantial pressure elsewhere on the Senate map.
Paxton Reportedly Acknowledged Falling GOP Numbers
The Texas poll arrived only days after a recording surfaced in which Paxton reportedly told conservative donors and lobbyists that Republican candidates had seen their numbers fall following the GOP’s midterm convention in Dallas.
Trump addressed the gathering.
The development does not necessarily mean the convention itself caused Republican support to decline. Campaign polling can move for many reasons, including advertising, economic concerns, candidate controversies and changes in voter enthusiasm.
Still, the comments have added another layer of attention to the Texas race.
The contest could become a test of whether Republican voters who strongly backed Trump in 2024 remain equally motivated in a midterm election.
Historically, turnout in midterm elections can look very different from presidential-election turnout.
That makes voter enthusiasm especially important.
Ohio Senate Poll Gives Democrats More Encouragement
Republicans received additional concerning news from Ohio.
Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leads Republican Sen. Jon Husted by 49% to 46% in another survey.
The poll was released shortly before Trump was scheduled to visit Ohio in support of Husted.
Husted was appointed to the Senate seat previously held by JD Vance, who left the chamber after becoming vice president.
Ohio was once considered one of America’s premier political swing states, but it has shifted noticeably toward Republicans during the Trump era.
Trump carried Ohio in three consecutive presidential elections.
That makes a close Senate race there particularly important.
Brown is also a familiar figure to voters after previously serving multiple terms in the Senate, meaning Republicans are facing a Democrat with statewide name recognition.
Iowa Race Remains Extremely Close
Republicans hold a narrow advantage in Iowa, but the latest numbers offer little room for comfort.
Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson leads Democrat Josh Turek by just one percentage point, 48% to 47%.
The race is for an open Senate seat.
Trump performed strongly in Iowa during the 2024 election, receiving roughly 56% of the state’s vote.
That would normally suggest Republicans should have an advantage in a statewide federal race.
However, midterm elections frequently depend on turnout rather than simply repeating the results of the previous presidential contest.
A one-point race means both parties have a strong incentive to devote money, volunteers and advertising to the state through Election Day.
Kansas Suddenly Looks Competitive
One of the most surprising results comes from Kansas.
Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton are tied at 45% each in the new polling.
Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in approximately a century.
That history alone explains why national Republicans are unlikely to dismiss the polling.
A Democratic victory there would dramatically reshape the Senate battlefield and force Republicans to defend territory that has traditionally been considered safe.
Republican leaders already appear to be responding.
Republicans Shift Millions Toward Kansas
The Senate Leadership Fund, which is aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, reportedly moved as much as $10 million away from the North Carolina Senate race and toward Kansas.
Such spending decisions can offer clues about how party strategists view the political map.
Campaign organizations have limited resources, especially during the closing weeks of an election.
Moving millions of dollars from one state to another generally means strategists believe their money could be more urgently needed elsewhere.
For Republicans, protecting normally reliable states such as Kansas may now be competing with efforts to win Democratic-held seats.
That could complicate the party’s path to maintaining or expanding its Senate majority.
North Carolina Gives Democrats Another Opening
North Carolina remains another closely watched Senate battleground.
Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper has been leading Republican Michael Whatley in the race.
Whatley previously served as chairman of the Republican National Committee and has been closely associated with Trump and the national Republican Party.
When White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly was asked Saturday whether Trump was confident Whatley would win, she did not directly predict the outcome.
She did, however, praise Whatley and his relationship with the president.
North Carolina has been intensely competitive in recent national elections, so neither party is likely to take the state for granted.
Maine Could Become Critical
Republican Sen. Susan Collins is also facing a difficult reelection fight in Maine.
Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson were tied at 50% in a recent CBS News poll.
Maine presents Republicans with a different challenge than states such as Texas or Kansas.
Collins has built her political identity around being a more moderate Republican and has survived previous Democratic efforts to defeat her.
But in a closely divided Senate, even one seat can make an enormous difference.
If Democrats can defeat Collins while gaining seats elsewhere, their path to Senate control becomes significantly easier.
Republicans Still Have Opportunities To Gain Seats
Despite the difficult polling, the Senate battlefield is not entirely defensive for Republicans.
The GOP is targeting Democratic-held seats in Michigan and New Hampshire.
Michigan is attracting particular attention.
Former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers is competing against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in a race that could help Republicans offset losses elsewhere.
Rogers has aggressively criticized El-Sayed during the campaign, including attacks on his political positions and associations with figures on the progressive left.
Republicans are hoping dissatisfaction with Democratic leadership could help them make gains in states where the party performed competitively during the 2024 presidential election.
That means Senate control will not necessarily be decided only by whether Republicans can defend their own seats.
The GOP could lose one state while gaining another.
Why Senate Control Matters For Trump
The stakes extend well beyond individual candidates.
Control of the Senate could determine how easily Trump can advance major parts of his agenda during the remainder of his term.
A Republican-controlled Senate gives the White House a much smoother path for confirming federal judges, Cabinet officials and other presidential nominees.
It also gives Republican lawmakers more influence over legislation, federal spending and congressional investigations.
A Democratic Senate would dramatically change that equation.
Democrats could gain control of committees, slow or block nominations and increase scrutiny of the Trump administration.
That is why races in places such as Texas, Alaska, Kansas, Ohio and Maine could have national consequences.
For conservative voters, the issue is not simply which candidate wins a particular state.
It is whether Republicans will continue to control one of the most powerful institutions in Washington.
Polls Are Not Election Results
Republicans still have an important reason not to panic: Polls are snapshots, not final results.
Political surveys measure voter opinion at a particular moment.
They cannot perfectly predict turnout, late-breaking events or how undecided voters will ultimately cast their ballots.
Polling errors have also occurred in recent elections.
Trump himself has repeatedly performed differently from what some surveys predicted, particularly in battleground states.
A candidate leading by several points weeks before Election Day is therefore not guaranteed victory.
Republican campaigns still have time to persuade undecided voters, increase conservative turnout and narrow Democratic advantages.
Democrats face the same challenge.
Strong polling only matters if supporters actually vote.
Conservative Turnout Could Decide The Senate
One of the biggest unanswered questions is whether Trump’s supporters will turn out for Republican Senate candidates at the same level they turned out for Trump in 2024.
Presidential elections generally attract more voters than midterms.
That difference could determine several of these races.
Republicans may need strong participation from older voters, suburban conservatives, working-class families and Americans worried about taxes, immigration, crime, inflation and government spending.
Democrats, meanwhile, are likely to focus heavily on motivating their own base while attempting to win independent voters dissatisfied with Republicans.
With margins this close, relatively small shifts in turnout could determine control of the entire Senate.
The Bottom Line
The newest Senate polling contains some difficult news for Trump and the Republican Party.
Democrats are showing unexpected strength in Texas and Alaska while also remaining competitive in Ohio, Kansas, North Carolina, Iowa and Maine.
That does not mean Republicans are headed for defeat.
Several races remain close, polling can change, and the GOP still has opportunities to capture Democratic-held seats in states such as Michigan and New Hampshire.
But the numbers make one thing clear: Republicans cannot afford to assume traditionally conservative states will automatically remain in their column.
With control of the U.S. Senate hanging in the balance, the final weeks before the Nov. 3 midterm elections could become a major test of Trump’s political influence and the Republican Party’s ability to turn conservative enthusiasm into votes.
For GOP voters, the stakes are substantial.
A Republican Senate could help Trump continue advancing his nominees and legislative priorities. A Democratic takeover could create a very different political environment in Washington during the remaining years of his presidency.
Now the question is whether the latest polls are an early warning for Republicans — or whether conservative voters will once again produce an Election Day result that surprises the political establishment.