Wow! Newsom clearly has a major issue.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom is facing an unexpected political setback after a new poll revealed that voters in his home state favor two other Democrats over him in a potential 2028 presidential primary.
The results could spell trouble for Newsom’s White House ambitions, especially as questions continue to surround his leadership and California’s future.
According to the survey, New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez emerged as the leading choice among California voters considering the Democratic presidential field.
And Newsom didn’t even finish second.
Newsom Suffers Surprising Poll Setback
The California Post-commissioned survey, conducted by McLaughlin & Associates, found Ocasio-Cortez leading the hypothetical Democratic primary with 18% support.
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg followed closely with 17%.
Newsom finished third with just 14%, despite serving as governor of the nation’s most populous state.
Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly received 10%, while former Vice President Kamala Harris, another prominent California Democrat, finished fifth with 7%.
The results are particularly surprising given the political backgrounds of Newsom and Harris.
Both spent years building their careers in California, yet neither managed to secure one of the top two positions in the survey.
While the race remains wide open, the findings suggest that California Democrats are considering alternatives to two of their state’s best-known political figures.
California Voters Question Newsom’s Leadership
The presidential numbers weren’t the only concerning findings for Newsom.
The survey also showed that 50% of California voters disapproved of his performance as governor, compared with 47% who approved.
Among respondents, 41% expressed strong disapproval.
Independent voters delivered an even more unfavorable assessment, with 62% disapproving of Newsom’s job performance.
These figures could create additional challenges if Newsom pursues the White House in 2028.
A presidential campaign would likely put his record as governor under intense national scrutiny, particularly when it comes to the economy, housing costs, taxation, and government spending.
For a politician hoping to expand his national appeal, dissatisfaction among voters at home is a problem that cannot easily be ignored.
California’s Problems Remain A Major Concern
The poll also revealed widespread frustration with California’s direction.
Approximately 56% of respondents believed the state was heading down the wrong track.
Financial pressures were among the leading concerns, with voters identifying issues such as inflation, affordability, housing expenses, taxes, and healthcare costs.
These problems have become central to California’s political debate.
For Newsom, the challenge is especially significant because his presidential prospects could depend partly on convincing voters that his experience in Sacramento qualifies him to lead the country.
Critics are likely to point to California’s affordability struggles when evaluating his leadership.
Supporters, meanwhile, may emphasize his administration’s policy initiatives and argue that many of the state’s economic challenges extend beyond any single governor.
Regardless, the latest polling suggests Newsom still has work to do in winning over skeptical voters.
AOC Emerges As A Serious Democratic Contender
Another major takeaway from the survey involves the growing influence of Ocasio-Cortez within the Democratic Party.
The New York congresswoman performed particularly well among voters identifying with the party’s liberal wing.
She received 25% support among self-described liberal respondents.
Among those identifying as very liberal, her support climbed to 41%.
These numbers suggest Ocasio-Cortez has established considerable appeal among some of the Democratic Party’s most progressive voters.
That could complicate Newsom’s presidential strategy if both politicians eventually compete for the nomination.
Newsom would need to distinguish himself from other prominent Democrats while building a coalition capable of winning a nationwide primary.
Buttigieg’s strong showing presents another challenge, suggesting that Ocasio-Cortez isn’t the only potential rival gaining attention.
Newsom And Harris Face An Uncertain Road To 2028
The survey questioned 800 California voters between October 17 and October 20, 2026.
Of those participants, 419 answered the hypothetical Democratic presidential primary question.
The overall poll carried a reported margin of error of 3.4 percentage points, while the smaller primary subgroup has greater statistical uncertainty.
The survey also found that 23% of respondents were undecided, leaving considerable room for the Democratic field to change.
And national polling has produced different results.
Several recent nationwide Democratic primary surveys have placed Harris ahead of other potential candidates, with Newsom also performing more competitively than he did in this California poll.
That distinction is important because one early survey cannot determine the outcome of a presidential contest still two years away.
Nevertheless, the California numbers raise questions about the political strength of both Newsom and Harris in their home state.
Newsom has already attracted attention for appearances outside California, including a visit to New Hampshire, a state with a long history of presidential primary campaigning.
Harris has also remained active in Democratic politics as speculation continues about her future plans.
Neither politician has secured a place at the top of the emerging Democratic field.
Could Newsom’s Presidential Plans Be In Trouble?
The latest findings offer an early glimpse into what could become a crowded and competitive Democratic presidential primary.
Newsom has national recognition, experience as governor, and established political connections.
However, those advantages may not be enough to guarantee support, even among California Democrats.
With Ocasio-Cortez and Buttigieg performing better in this particular survey, the governor could face a difficult challenge convincing voters that he represents the party’s best option in 2028.
The results also underline a broader political question: Will Democrats turn to familiar establishment figures, or will primary voters seek a different direction?
For Newsom, the immediate message is difficult to overlook. A new poll shows two potential presidential rivals ahead of him in California, while half of surveyed voters disapprove of his performance as governor.
Whether those findings represent a temporary setback or an early warning about his presidential prospects remains to be seen.