Biden is doomed!
A recent poll conducted by Echelon Insights reveals that Donald Trump holds a significant advantage over President Joe Biden in crucial swing states leading up to the 2024 presidential election. The survey, which included 1,020 likely voters, indicates that 48 percent of respondents in battleground states expressed their intention to vote for the Republican candidate, who is considered the frontrunner for the GOP nomination in 2024. In comparison, 41 percent stated their support for Biden.
According to Newsweek, during the 2020 election, Biden secured victory by flipping key swing states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. If he wishes to be reelected to the White House next year, Biden will need to maintain a majority in these battleground states, as well as secure several other states he previously won.
The Echelon Insights survey also indicates that, overall, Biden would narrowly defeat Trump in the 2024 election when respondents were presented with a choice between the two candidates, with 45 percent supporting the president and 44 percent supporting Trump.
However, when respondents were given the option to choose between Trump, Biden, and progressive activist and Green Party candidate Cornell West, the Republican candidate emerged as the preferred choice. Among likely voters, Trump garnered 43 percent support, while Biden trailed slightly with 42 percent. West lagged significantly behind with just 4 percent support.
When focusing on swing-state voters, Trump’s lead over Biden expanded to 48 percent versus 40 percent. West secured the support of 3 percent of swing-state voters.
Upon West’s announcement as a presidential candidate for 2024, concerns arose that he could potentially have a substantial impact on the election results by diverting votes away from Biden. David B. Cohen, a political science professor at the University of Akron in Ohio, highlighted the potential spoiler effect of a third-party candidate, particularly if they gain enough votes in battleground states to alter the final outcome.
Past elections have witnessed the influence of third-party candidates. In the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton lost Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to Trump by less than a 1 percent margin. Green Party candidate Jill Stein garnered enough votes in these three states that, had her supporters backed the Democratic candidate, the outcome may have shifted in Clinton’s favor. Similarly, during the 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore, the Green Party’s Ralph Nader had a notable impact on the results. Nader received over 2.8 million votes overall, including 97,000 in the crucial swing state of Florida. The election came down to a contentious recount in Florida, and ultimately, the Supreme Court declared Bush the winner with a slim margin of just over 500 votes. Had a small fraction of Nader’s supporters chosen to back the Democratic candidate, Gore would have emerged victorious in 2000.