Does anyone believe this?
CNN is drawing fresh attention to President Donald Trump’s popularity after highlighting polling numbers that show former President Barack Obama enjoying a substantial advantage with American voters.
But the network’s latest comparison is raising a question worth considering: Is it fair to compare a sitting president making difficult decisions every day with a former president who has been out of office for nearly a decade?
The numbers were presented Monday by CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten, who appeared on CNN News Central to discuss the political influence of Trump and Obama ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.
Enten appeared particularly impressed by Obama’s polling advantage, using the findings to warn that Republicans could face difficulties with independent voters.
However, the comparison involves two very different political circumstances, and the numbers do not necessarily predict how Americans will vote.
CNN Analyst Highlights Obama’s Lead Over Trump
During the October 26 broadcast, Enten reviewed polling data measuring how favorably Americans view the two presidents.
According to the figures highlighted by CNN, Obama held a net favorability rating of positive 20 percentage points.
Trump, meanwhile, registered a negative 18-point net favorability rating.
That puts Obama 38 percentage points ahead of Trump on this particular measure of public opinion.
Enten described the difference in enthusiastic terms, declaring that Obama “absolutely crushes” Trump in popularity.
But favorability ratings measure people’s general impressions of political figures, not necessarily how they would vote in a congressional election.
That distinction is especially important with the midterms rapidly approaching.
Independent Voters Show an Even Bigger Divide
CNN’s analysis also focused on independent voters, a group that frequently plays an important role in competitive elections.
According to polling conducted by the University of Massachusetts Lowell and YouGov, Obama’s net favorability among independents stood at positive 19 percentage points.
Trump’s rating among independents was considerably lower, at negative 38 points.
The difference amounts to a 57-point advantage for Obama.
Enten suggested that Trump’s standing with independent voters could create difficulties for Republican congressional candidates, including those competing in traditionally Republican states.
The findings present a potential warning sign for the GOP.
However, an unfavorable opinion of a president does not automatically translate into a vote for the opposing party’s candidate.
Voters may still make their decisions based on individual candidates, economic conditions, immigration policies, local concerns and other issues.
Why Comparing Trump and Obama Is Complicated
One of the most important details in CNN’s comparison is the different positions the two men currently occupy.
Trump is serving as president, while Obama left the White House in January 2017.
As the sitting president, Trump faces daily scrutiny over government spending, economic conditions, border security, foreign policy and decisions made by his administration.
Obama does not carry those same governing responsibilities today.
Americans can evaluate a former president largely through their memories of his administration, while a sitting president must contend with immediate political controversies and current events.
That distinction does not invalidate the polling results.
It does, however, provide important context when interpreting what those numbers actually mean.
A comparison of personal favorability is not the same thing as a direct assessment of two administrations operating under identical circumstances.
And it certainly is not an election between Trump and Obama.
Obama and Trump Return to the Campaign Trail
The CNN segment followed campaign appearances by both political figures in Michigan, where an important U.S. Senate race has attracted national attention.
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers are competing for a Senate seat in a contest that could help determine the balance of power in Washington.
Obama has been campaigning on behalf of Democrats, while Trump continues to use his influence to support Republican candidates.
Their involvement illustrates the central roles both men continue to play in American politics.
For Democrats, Obama remains a recognizable former president whose appearances can generate enthusiasm among supporters.
For Republicans, Trump remains the party’s most prominent national figure and the sitting president whose policies are central to the election debate.
CNN’s polling comparison attempts to measure which leader currently enjoys greater personal popularity.
But that question is different from determining which party voters trust to govern.
What the Polling Numbers Actually Tell Americans
There is another important detail that can be overlooked when political polling becomes the subject of heated television commentary.
A net favorability rating is calculated by subtracting the percentage of respondents who view a political figure unfavorably from the percentage who view that person favorably.
For example, a politician with 55% favorable and 35% unfavorable ratings would have a net favorability score of positive 20 points.
That number does not mean the politician has support from only 20% of Americans.
It also does not measure how many voters would support that individual in a hypothetical election.
When comparing polling results, readers should also consider survey dates, sample sizes, margins of error and the wording of questions.
Those details help determine how much confidence to place in a particular comparison.
The figures highlighted by CNN indicate that Obama is viewed more favorably than Trump in the surveys discussed. They do not, by themselves, establish what will happen on Election Day.
Midterm Elections Will Test Both Parties
With the November 3 elections approaching, Republicans and Democrats are making their final arguments to voters.
Control of Congress is at stake, and independent voters could influence the outcome of several competitive races.
For Republicans, concerns about Trump’s popularity may place additional pressure on candidates seeking to distinguish their own records and priorities.
For Democrats, Obama’s favorable public image could provide an advantage in generating campaign enthusiasm.
Still, neither party can rely exclusively on the popularity of a current or former president.
Congressional candidates must persuade voters that their policies will address the challenges facing the country.
For many Americans, those issues include household expenses, taxes, health care, immigration, retirement security and the nation’s economic future.
These concerns are likely to influence voting decisions alongside broader opinions about national political leaders.
The Bottom Line
CNN’s latest polling analysis shows Obama maintaining a substantial popularity advantage over Trump, particularly among independent voters.
Those findings deserve attention as Republicans prepare for a potentially difficult midterm election.
But a favorable opinion of a former president is not a substitute for an actual vote, and a comparison of two political figures with very different responsibilities cannot tell the entire story.
Whether Americans agree with CNN’s interpretation or question the usefulness of the comparison, the final decision belongs to voters.
On November 3, Americans will decide which candidates they trust to represent their interests in Washington.
And those election results will offer a far more meaningful test of the country’s current political direction than a television segment comparing Trump and Obama.