Here’s what could happen.
A brand-new poll out of Arizona is sending shockwaves through political circles, revealing that Democrat Gov. Katie Hobbs is far more competitive than many conservatives expected — even as Arizona voters have been turning sharply back toward President Trump’s America-First policies.
This new data suggests one thing: Republicans cannot afford to take this race for granted.
Hobbs Locked in a Dead Heat With Top Republicans
According to the Emerson College Polling survey, Hobbs is running neck-and-neck with several Republican challengers, proving that the 2026 governor’s race is shaping up to be one of the most important elections in the country.
Hobbs vs. Karrin Taylor Robson
- Hobbs: 43%
- Robson: 42%
- Undecided: 15%
This match-up is well within the 3.3% margin of error, making the race a true toss-up.
Hobbs vs. Rep. Andy Biggs
- Hobbs: 44%
- Biggs: 43%
- Undecided: 13%
Another statistical tie — one that should motivate conservative voters who want leadership focused on border security, economic stability, and protecting American families.
Hobbs vs. Rep. David Schweikert
- Hobbs: 44%
- Schweikert: 40%
- Undecided: 16%
Even here, high undecided numbers mean the race can shift dramatically once Republicans consolidate behind a nominee.
Biggs Dominates GOP Primary — A Clear Trump-Aligned Front-Runner
Inside the Republican primary, Rep. Andy Biggs has a commanding lead, thanks in large part to strong support from older conservative voters and Arizonans who backed President Trump.
GOP Primary Results:
- Biggs: 50%
- Taylor Robson: 17%
- Schweikert: 8%
- Undecided: 25%
Notably, Biggs holds:
- 59% support among voters over 60
- 51% support from Trump voters
These are the exact voters who show up reliably — especially in high-stakes elections.
Top Issues Driving Arizona Voters — And They Favor Republicans
The poll also highlights the issues Arizonans care about most, and they align directly with the challenges created under Democrat leadership:
Most Important Issues
- Economy: 34%
- Immigration: 18%
- “Threats to democracy”: 11%
- Housing affordability: 10%
For older conservative voters, the economy and immigration remain the top priorities. Under President Trump, Arizona saw stronger job growth, lower inflation pressures, and far more secure borders — issues that continue to rank at the top of voter concerns.
Hobbs Faces a Brutal Reelection Environment
Gov. Hobbs is attempting to secure a second term after barely scraping by Kari Lake in 2022. But 2026 is a very different political landscape.
President Trump won Arizona by nearly six points in the most recent election — a major blow to Democrat confidence and a clear indicator that Arizona is returning to its conservative roots.
Hobbs is widely considered one of the most vulnerable Democratic governors in America, and this poll confirms it.
President Trump has already endorsed both Taylor Robson and Andy Biggs, signaling that he intends to play a decisive role in taking back the Arizona governor’s office.
Poll Methodology
- Survey conducted: Nov. 8–10
- Sample size: 850 registered voters
- Margin of error: ±3.3%
- GOP primary voters: 381
- Primary MoE: ±5%
With Arizona emerging once again as a pivotal battleground, Republicans have a real opportunity — but only if conservative voters stay informed, stay engaged, and refuse to let Democrats quietly slip through another key election.