The race for the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nomination is already beginning to take shape, and two rising Democrats are gaining momentum as California Governor Gavin Newsom loses ground in early prediction markets.
Although the next presidential election is still years away, potential candidates are already testing messages, making public appearances in key states, and positioning themselves for what is expected to be a highly competitive Democratic primary.
While prediction markets are not scientific polls, they offer one snapshot of how traders and political observers view the race based on current events, fundraising, polling, and candidate activity.
Ocasio-Cortez And Ossoff Gain Ground
According to the latest figures from Polymarket, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia have both gained significant momentum in recent weeks.
Ocasio-Cortez’s odds of winning the Democratic nomination climbed from approximately 9% one month ago to 15%, making her one of the fastest-rising names in the field.
Ossoff saw an even larger increase. His chances more than doubled, rising from less than 6% to 14%, signaling growing confidence among prediction market participants.
Meanwhile, Governor Gavin Newsom’s standing declined. His odds slipped from roughly 25% to 18% over the same period, though he remains among the leading contenders.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris held relatively steady with about an 8% chance of securing the nomination in the prediction market.
A similar trend has emerged on Kalshi, another prediction platform. There, Ocasio-Cortez climbed from roughly 10% to 16%, while Ossoff increased from 9% to 14%. Newsom continued to lead that market but remained in the low-20% range.
Traditional Polls Tell A Different Story
Despite the movement in prediction markets, traditional public opinion polls continue to show Kamala Harris leading the potential Democratic field.
A recent FocalData survey found Harris receiving 33% support among registered voters. Newsom followed with 15%, while Ocasio-Cortez earned 9%.
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg received 8%, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro stood at 7%, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly earned 5%, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker received 3%, and both Jon Ossoff and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear registered 2%.
Another nationwide survey conducted by McLaughlin & Associates also showed Harris holding the lead with 26% support. Newsom followed at 16%, while Ocasio-Cortez received 9% and Buttigieg earned 8%.
Pritzker, New Jersey Senator Cory Booker, and Shapiro each measured 5%, while Kelly received 3%. Maryland Governor Wes Moore and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer each registered 2%.
Earlier this year, a Harvard/Harris poll showed Harris with an even larger advantage, earning support from half of Democratic primary voters surveyed. Newsom placed second at 22%, followed by Shapiro at 9%, Ocasio-Cortez at 8%, and Pritzker at 6%.
The contrast between prediction markets and public polling illustrates how uncertain the Democratic race remains this early in the election cycle.
Several Democrats Leave The Door Open
Although no major Democrat has officially entered the 2028 race, several prominent figures have addressed speculation about their political futures.
Kamala Harris has indicated she is considering another White House campaign. Speaking earlier this year, she said she has been thinking about another presidential run while pointing to her experience serving as vice president and working closely with the presidency.
Newsom has also declined to rule out a future campaign. In an interview last year, he acknowledged he is not actively preparing a presidential bid but said he could envision circumstances that lead him to run.
Ocasio-Cortez has largely dismissed speculation surrounding her political ambitions, saying her primary focus remains advancing progressive policy priorities rather than pursuing political titles. She has emphasized issues including healthcare, wages, and workers’ rights.
Ossoff has repeatedly rejected suggestions that he plans to seek the presidency. Instead, he says his full attention remains on winning another Senate term in Georgia.
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer has also attempted to quiet speculation, publicly stating she does not intend to run for president in 2028.
An Early Race That Could Change Quickly
While the Democratic nomination contest is still in its early stages, the latest prediction markets suggest Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff are gaining momentum as Gavin Newsom’s standing softens.
At the same time, traditional polling continues to place Kamala Harris at the top of the potential Democratic field, highlighting the gap between voter preferences and prediction market expectations.
With the 2026 midterm elections still ahead and no official campaigns underway, the Democratic field remains wide open. Political analysts expect the landscape to shift repeatedly as candidates make decisions, fundraising accelerates, and voters begin paying closer attention to the race.
As more Democrats reveal their plans, the battle for the party’s 2028 nomination is expected to become one of the most closely watched political stories in the years ahead.