Here’s what happened.
President Donald Trump and the Republican Party are confronting disappointing election news from California, where a new statewide poll shows Democrats holding a commanding advantage in the race for governor.
With Election Day rapidly approaching, Republican Steve Hilton is trailing Democrat Xavier Becerra by more than 20 percentage points, raising serious doubts about the GOP’s chances of reclaiming one of the nation’s most influential governor’s offices.
The results come as California prepares for a major political transition, with Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom leaving office because of term limits.
And while Republicans have spent months trying to make the contest competitive, the latest numbers suggest California could remain firmly under Democratic leadership.
New Poll Shows Republicans Facing a Major Defeat
A statewide survey released October 27 by the Public Policy Institute of California delivered troubling numbers for Republicans.
The poll found Becerra leading Hilton by a substantial margin:
- Xavier Becerra (Democrat): 61%
- Steve Hilton (Republican): 37%
- Becerra’s advantage: 24 percentage points
The survey questioned 1,086 likely voters between October 16 and October 22.
Those results represent a difficult political reality for Hilton as the November 3 election approaches.
The numbers also show little evidence that Republicans have significantly narrowed the gap.
In September, the same polling organization found Becerra leading 60% to 38%.
That means the Democrat’s advantage has actually increased slightly during the final weeks of the campaign.
And other surveys paint a similar picture.
A recent SurveyUSA poll showed Becerra ahead 54% to 32%, while Emerson College polling also found the Democrat maintaining a large lead.
Taken together, the surveys suggest that Republicans would need an extraordinary turnaround to capture California’s governor’s mansion.
California’s Political Landscape Creates a Difficult Challenge
California has long been one of the Democratic Party’s strongest states.
Despite its history of electing Republican governors, including Ronald Reagan and Arnold Schwarzenegger, the state has moved decisively toward Democrats in recent decades.
The last Republican to win a California gubernatorial election was Schwarzenegger in 2006.
Since then, Democrats have controlled the governor’s office through multiple election cycles.
For Republicans, defeating Becerra would represent a major breakthrough and demonstrate that the party can still compete in traditionally Democratic territory.
But the latest polling reveals just how difficult that task has become.
California’s governor oversees a massive state government with considerable influence over taxes, public safety, infrastructure, education, housing, and environmental policy.
The office also carries significant national political visibility.
That makes the outcome important beyond California’s borders, even though the election itself will not directly affect the presidency.
Who Is Democrat Xavier Becerra?
Becerra brings decades of government experience to the race.
He previously served as California’s attorney general and later became secretary of health and human services under former President Joe Biden.
Before joining the Biden administration, Becerra spent more than two decades representing California in the U.S. House of Representatives.
His political background has made him a recognizable figure among California voters.
It has also connected him closely to the Democratic Party’s record on major national issues, including health care and immigration.
For Becerra, the election presents an opportunity to continue Democratic leadership in Sacramento following Newsom’s departure.
For Hilton, the challenge is convincing voters that California needs a different approach after years of Democratic control.
Republican Steve Hilton Campaigns on Economic Concerns
Hilton, a former Fox News host and political adviser, has centered much of his campaign on California’s economic challenges.
His message has emphasized affordability, taxes, gasoline prices, and the difficulties facing families and small businesses.
California’s high cost of living has remained a major concern for residents, particularly those struggling with housing expenses and everyday necessities.
Hilton has argued that changes in state leadership are necessary to address those problems.
His campaign has also sought to challenge the policies and priorities of California’s Democratic establishment.
However, the polling indicates that his economic message has not produced enough support to close the gap with Becerra.
Even voters who express frustration with the state’s economic conditions do not necessarily support a Republican candidate.
That distinction could prove decisive on Election Day.
California Voters Are Deeply Pessimistic About the Country
One of the most striking findings from the Public Policy Institute of California survey goes beyond the governor’s race.
The report found that 82% of California adults believe the United States is heading in the wrong direction.
According to the organization, that represents the highest level of national pessimism recorded since it began asking the question two decades ago.
The survey also found widespread concern about the economy and the state’s future.
Those attitudes highlight the frustration many voters are experiencing as they confront financial uncertainty and the rising cost of everyday life.
Yet the governor’s race demonstrates an important political reality.
Widespread public dissatisfaction does not always translate into support for the opposition party.
Despite concerns about the direction of the country, Becerra continues to hold a comfortable polling advantage.
What the Results Mean for President Trump
Although Trump is not personally running in California’s gubernatorial election, the contest carries broader political significance for Republicans.
The GOP has attempted to expand its appeal by focusing on economic issues, government spending, public safety, and dissatisfaction with Democratic leadership.
A victory in California would be a major achievement for that strategy.
But the latest survey underscores the difficulty of winning statewide in territory where Democrats enjoy a substantial electoral advantage.
The results are also a reminder that national political momentum does not necessarily translate into success in every state.
California has its own political landscape, shaped by longstanding voting patterns, demographic trends, and local concerns.
A defeat for Hilton would not determine the outcome of other races across the country.
However, it would demonstrate that Republicans still face considerable obstacles in their efforts to expand their electoral map.
Republicans Still Have a Chance to Make Their Case
Despite the substantial polling gap, the election has not yet been decided.
Polls measure voter preferences at a particular moment. They do not count actual ballots or guarantee the final result.
Campaign activity, turnout, and last-minute changes in voter sentiment can affect an election.
Nevertheless, overcoming a double-digit deficit this close to Election Day would be extremely difficult.
For Hilton, the remaining challenge is to persuade undecided voters while encouraging supporters to participate.
For Becerra, the priority is maintaining his existing advantage through the final days of the campaign.
Both candidates must ultimately wait for California voters to deliver their verdict.
The Bottom Line
California’s latest governor’s race polling offers disappointing news for Republicans hoping to make a political breakthrough in one of America’s most influential states.
With Becerra holding a 24-point advantage in the newest Public Policy Institute of California survey, Hilton faces a steep climb heading into November 3.
The results also highlight the broader challenge facing the Republican Party as it attempts to compete in Democratic strongholds.
For Trump and Republicans, California remains a difficult political battleground.
And unless the final days produce a dramatic change in voter sentiment, Democrats appear well-positioned to retain control of the governor’s mansion.
The final decision, however, belongs to California voters when they head to the polls on November 3.