Biden is at his lowest point since he became president.
Recent developments in the presidential election landscape have led to a significant shift in betting odds favoring Joe Biden. RealClearPolitics has reported a downturn in Biden’s odds following the release of a report by Department of Justice (DOJ) special counsel Robert Hur.
Hur’s report focused on the Biden classified documents case, stemming from materials discovered at his Delaware home and Penn Biden Center office in Washington, D.C., between November 2022 and January 2023. While Hur cleared Biden of charges related to retaining the materials, he sparked controversy by describing Biden as an “elderly” individual with declining memory—a characterization reinforcing concerns about Biden’s age and mental acuity as the oldest president in history.
Critics, including Biden and his administration, denounced the report as inaccurate and politically motivated, suggesting Hur, a Republican appointed by Donald Trump, aimed to harm Biden’s reelection prospects. Hur was appointed by Attorney General Merrick Garland to ensure an impartial investigation.
Concurrently, Trump, indicted by the DOJ in the previous year, pleaded not guilty to 40 federal charges related to retaining classified documents after leaving office and obstructing efforts to return them to the National Archives. FBI raids on Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence recovered additional classified documents, further complicating the political landscape.
RealClearPolitics, a platform known for aggregating polling data into betting odds, saw a notable decline in Biden’s chances for both the Democratic nomination and the general election post-Hur’s report. Biden’s odds for the Democratic nomination dropped from 73% to 60%, while his chances in the general election decreased from 33% to 26%. Despite this, the site still favors Trump, the probable GOP nominee, with a 44% chance of winning the general election.
Critics have accused RealClearPolitics of conservative bias, particularly since Trump’s presidency began, though former employees deny any pressure to skew content. Other major polls depict Biden and Trump in a close race, with some indicating a slight lead for Biden, such as a recent Quinnipiac University poll showing a six-point advantage for Biden among registered voters.