Things are closer than they actually appear.
The “Keys to the White House,” a forecasting tool created by Allan Lichtman, currently suggests that Vice President Kamala Harris might have the upper hand in a hypothetical 2024 showdown with former President Donald Trump. However, it’s important to note that a definitive prediction for the 2024 election has not yet been made.
Lichtman, a historian renowned for his accurate predictions since 1984, employs a formula known as the “Keys to the White House” to forecast presidential election outcomes. This formula consists of 13 true-or-false statements about the political landscape and candidates. Each statement, or “key,” is used to evaluate which party is likely to win the presidency. A candidate needs to secure at least six keys to be predicted as the winner.
Initially, Democrats were automatically awarded one key due to President Joe Biden’s incumbency. However, the dynamics of the race have since shifted significantly. The 13 keys are as follows:
- Party Mandate: This assesses whether the party in power has gained a significant majority.
- Contest: This evaluates whether the incumbent’s party faces a strong challenge.
- Incumbency: This considers whether the current president is running for re-election.
- Third Party: This measures the impact of any significant third-party candidates.
- Short-term Economy: This looks at the state of the economy in the months leading up to the election.
- Long-term Economy: This evaluates the broader economic trends over a longer period.
- Policy Change: This assesses whether significant policy changes have been implemented.
- Social Unrest: This considers the level of social unrest or civil disturbances.
- Scandal: This evaluates whether there have been major scandals involving the incumbent party.
- Foreign/Military Failure: This measures failures in foreign or military policy.
- Foreign/Military Success: This looks at successes in foreign or military policy.
- Incumbent Charisma: This assesses the charisma of the incumbent president.
- Challenger Charisma: This evaluates the charisma of the challenger.
According to Lichtman’s current assessment, Democrats, with Kamala Harris as the likely nominee, hold six of the 13 keys. These include keys for primary contest, short-term and long-term economy, policy change, and no scandal or challenger charisma. On the other hand, Republicans hold three keys, notably the 2022 House majority win, the incumbent not running for re-election, and a lack of incumbent charisma.
Four keys remain undecided, particularly the influence of a potential third-party candidate like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., as well as the state of social unrest and foreign military performance.
If Democrats lose three additional keys, Lichtman’s formula would predict a Republican victory. Though a final prediction will be made post-Democratic National Convention in August, Lichtman has indicated that it would take significant setbacks for Harris to lose the race. Given Lichtman’s track record of accurately forecasting the 2016 and 2020 elections, his insights will be closely watched in the lead-up to November 2024.