This was a strange turn of events.
Recent polling data suggests that former President Donald Trump has a slight edge over Vice President Kamala Harris in Georgia, a crucial battleground state. However, a significant increase in new voter registrations, particularly among younger voters and newly naturalized citizens, may shift the electoral landscape in favor of the Democrats.
Between July 21—when President Biden exited the 2024 race—and September 8, Georgia has welcomed over 120,000 new registered voters. Notably, 56% of these registrants are under the age of 34, and more than half (53%) belong to communities of color. These groups tend to favor Democratic candidates, potentially posing a challenge for Trump as he seeks to maintain his lead.
The state, which narrowly went to Biden in 2020 by fewer than 12,000 votes, is also witnessing a significant number of immigrants who will be eligible for citizenship. The American Immigration Council estimates that around 158,000 noncitizens in Georgia could become naturalized voters by the 2024 election. Many of these individuals are expected to be highly motivated to participate in the electoral process.
Steve Hubbard, a senior data scientist with the American Immigration Council, noted the commitment required for the naturalization process. He emphasized that new citizens often take great pride in their journey and are eager to engage in the democratic system. With Georgia boasting a naturalization rate of 78.7%, which is above the national average, the potential influence of these new voters could be substantial in a tightly contested election.
Currently, Trump leads Harris in Georgia by 1.5 percentage points, according to the latest RealClearPolitics polling average. With 16 Electoral College votes at stake, both candidates are focusing their efforts on the state. Their recent visits to assess the aftermath of Hurricane Helene and to meet with local officials underscore Georgia’s importance in the upcoming election.
As November approaches, the political climate in Georgia is anything but certain. While Trump holds a narrow advantage, the influx of young and newly naturalized voters could significantly impact the race, reinforcing the idea that every single vote is crucial in this competitive election.