Trump is giving California Democrats a good fight.
A new poll is giving Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton an encouraging sign in California’s race for governor, showing him with a narrow lead over Democrat Xavier Becerra in Orange County, one of the state’s most closely watched political battlegrounds.
While Democrats continue to maintain a significant statewide advantage, the survey suggests Hilton is making inroads in a county that has historically played an important role in California elections. The results come as both campaigns intensify their efforts ahead of the November general election.
According to a University of California, Irvine poll conducted from June 9 through June 12, Hilton received support from 47% of likely voters in Orange County, compared with 44% for Becerra. Although the margin falls within the poll’s potential error range, the findings indicate a competitive race in one of California’s largest and most influential counties.
Reacting to the results, Hilton said the poll reflects growing frustration among voters with the direction of the state.
“We have moved ahead of Becerra in California’s third-largest county,” Hilton wrote on social media. “Millions of Californians are saying: Enough is enough. Let’s fix California.”
The survey also highlighted strong party loyalty among Republican voters. Hilton earned support from 94% of Republicans surveyed in Orange County, while Becerra received backing from 82% of Democratic voters.
Orange County Remains a Key Political Battleground
Orange County has undergone significant political changes over the past decade. Once regarded as one of the Republican Party’s strongest counties in California, the region has become increasingly competitive as Democratic voter registration has grown and the number of independent voters has steadily increased.
Today, nearly one-third of Orange County voters identify with no political party, making independents a critical voting bloc in statewide elections.
According to the poll, independent voters favored Becerra by a margin of 46% to 38%. Even so, Hilton’s overwhelming support among Republican voters was enough to give him a slight overall advantage in the county.
Political analysts say Orange County continues to serve as an important indicator of broader political trends across California, making the latest survey one to watch as Election Day approaches.
Hilton Focuses on California’s Everyday Challenges
Observers say Hilton has worked to position himself as a center-right Republican focused on issues affecting daily life rather than emphasizing partisan conflict.
University of California, Irvine polling director Jon Gould told The Orange County Register that Hilton’s campaign presents a more traditionally conservative approach that may appeal to a broader group of voters.
Throughout the campaign, Hilton has emphasized concerns including the high cost of living, housing affordability, public safety, homelessness, taxes, and California’s business climate. Those issues continue to rank among the top concerns for many voters across the state.
Trump’s Endorsement Adds National Attention
President Donald Trump has endorsed Hilton’s campaign, giving the Republican an important boost among GOP voters.
At the same time, Hilton has sought to broaden his appeal by focusing much of his campaign on California-specific issues. One of his most talked-about campaign advertisements asked, “Can you be anti-Trump but still vote for me?”—an effort to reach voters who may disagree with the president but are open to a change in state leadership.
The strategy reflects Hilton’s attempt to build support among independents and moderate voters while maintaining enthusiasm within the Republican base.
Democrats Continue to Hold the Statewide Edge
Despite Hilton’s encouraging showing in Orange County, recent statewide polling indicates Becerra remains the favorite in the race.
A statewide poll released by the Public Policy Institute of California in mid-July showed Becerra holding a sizable advantage over Hilton among likely voters. The survey found Becerra with 61% support, compared to 36% for Hilton, giving the Democrat a 25-point lead.
The statewide numbers underscore the challenge Republicans face in California, where Democrats have held a political advantage for years. Still, competitive polling in key regions suggests both campaigns will continue investing significant resources in the final months before the election.
The Road to November
With Election Day scheduled for November 3 and mail ballots set to begin arriving on October 5, California’s gubernatorial race is expected to draw increasing attention.
Whether Hilton can expand his support beyond Orange County remains one of the biggest questions of the campaign. Meanwhile, Becerra will look to maintain his statewide lead as both candidates compete for independent voters and seek to shape the debate on California’s most pressing issues.
As the election enters its final stretch, polling, voter turnout, and campaign strategy will likely determine whether Orange County’s results are an early sign of broader momentum or simply a snapshot of one closely contested region.