Will Trump end the war?
Russia has expressed a willingness to engage in peace talks over its ongoing war in Ukraine, but only on the condition that the United States makes the first move, according to top Kremlin officials. The comments come as the war, now in its third year, shows no signs of slowing, with heavy casualties on both sides and mounting infrastructure damage in Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated this week that Russia is prepared to negotiate, but emphasized that Washington needs to take the first step toward restoring dialogue—something he claims the U.S. broke off after the conflict began.
Lavrov’s statement reflects Russia’s continued insistence that the U.S. led the collapse of communication channels between the two countries, and thus it should be the one to initiate a path toward peace. This echoes earlier remarks made by retired General Keith Kellogg, President Trump’s pick for the Ukraine envoy, who noted in a recent Fox News interview that both Russia and Ukraine are growing increasingly exhausted by the prolonged war. Kellogg emphasized that after nearly three years of fighting, with heavy losses on both sides, there seems to be a mutual recognition that negotiations may be the only viable way forward.
According to U.S. estimates, Russia has lost tens of thousands of soldiers, with over 1,200 casualties per day on average. Ukraine has similarly endured significant losses, with the country’s energy infrastructure severely damaged by relentless Russian bombings aimed at crippling its power grid. This destruction reached a new level over the Christmas holiday, with Russia launching a major missile and drone attack against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, marking an especially cruel and deliberate strike timed to coincide with the holiday season.
Kellogg’s assessment suggests that both sides are nearing the point where they may be open to a resolution, with the possibility of Trump stepping in as a mediator, likening the situation to a “cage fight” where both sides are ready to “tap out” but need a neutral party to step in and referee the process.
Lavrov also indicated that Russian President Vladimir Putin is open to peace talks in a third country, with Slovakia offering to host negotiations. However, it remains uncertain whether Ukraine would agree to this location, given that Slovakia has been vocal in its opposition to sending further military aid to Ukraine. The willingness of Ukraine to participate in such talks, and whether it would accept Slovakia’s offer to serve as a neutral ground, is still unclear.
As tensions continue to rise, and both sides grow weary from the ongoing conflict, the opportunity for peace talks appears to be gaining momentum. However, the path to a resolution will require careful diplomacy, and a determined effort from the U.S. to facilitate meaningful discussions. With the incoming Trump administration potentially playing a key role, there may be a window for de-escalation—if both sides are truly ready to move toward peace.