Here’s what Trump and the GOP is facing now.
Republicans are facing a difficult battle in the California governor’s race, with a new statewide poll giving Democrat Xavier Becerra a commanding lead over Republican Steve Hilton.
The Public Policy Institute of California survey found Becerra supported by 61% of likely voters. Hilton, a former Fox News host, received 36%, placing him 25 percentage points behind his Democratic opponent.
Although one poll cannot predict the final outcome, the results provide unwelcome political news for President Donald Trump and Republicans hoping to gain ground in heavily Democratic California.
Becerra Expands Lead After California Primary
The latest numbers represent a major change from California’s June 2 primary election.
Becerra finished first in the crowded contest with approximately 28.1% of the vote. Hilton followed with about 24.7%, allowing both candidates to advance to the Nov. 3 general election.
California operates under a top-two primary system. The two candidates receiving the most votes advance, regardless of political affiliation.
The winner will replace Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, who cannot seek another term because of California’s term-limit rules.
Democratic Voters Rally Behind Becerra
Becerra appears to have consolidated Democratic support that was divided among several candidates during the primary.
Billionaire Tom Steyer was among the Democrats competing in the race, but he narrowly failed to qualify for the general election. The PPIC results suggest many voters who initially supported other Democrats have now moved behind Becerra.
The former health secretary led Hilton among nearly every major group examined in the survey, including different age groups, income levels and regions of the state. Becerra also led among homeowners, renters, men and women, and the racial and ethnic groups included in the poll.
Republicans Remain Firmly Behind Hilton
Both candidates continue to enjoy strong support within their respective parties.
Becerra was backed by 93% of Democratic likely voters, while 90% of Republicans supported Hilton. Those numbers show that relatively few voters are crossing party lines.
Independent voters, however, may be a serious concern for Hilton. Becerra led among likely voters without a major-party affiliation by 60% to 34%.
Hilton will likely need to narrow that gap while motivating Republicans who are concerned about taxes, crime, housing expenses, energy prices and California’s high cost of living.
Environmental Policy Emerges as Major Issue
Environmental and energy policies could have a significant influence on the California governor’s race.
About 85% of likely voters said the candidates’ environmental policies would influence their choice, including 48% who considered the issue a top priority.
Opinions differed considerably by political affiliation:
- 60% of Democrats said environmental policy was very important.
- 44% of independent voters agreed.
- 29% of Republicans gave the same response.
California has experienced recurring wildfires while facing heated debates over water supplies, climate policies, gasoline prices and government regulations.
Becerra and Hilton are expected to present sharply different approaches to those issues before the November election.
California Republicans Face Wider Challenges
The survey also contained discouraging numbers for Republican congressional candidates.
When likely voters were asked which party they would support in their local U.S. House race, 63% selected the Democratic candidate and 35% chose the Republican.
PPIC reported that the congressional numbers have remained relatively stable compared with its previous surveys.
California has long been one of the Democratic Party’s strongest states. Republicans nevertheless continue to compete in several congressional districts where taxes, public safety, immigration and economic concerns may produce closer races.
Newsom Receives Better Environmental Rating Than Trump
California voters also rated Newsom more favorably than Trump on environmental matters.
About half of likely voters approved of Newsom’s handling of environmental policy. Only around one-quarter approved of Trump’s performance on the issue.
The comparison reflects California’s strongly Democratic electorate, as well as the deep partisan divide surrounding climate, energy and environmental regulations.
Republicans frequently argue that aggressive state mandates raise costs for families, motorists and businesses. Democrats generally maintain that strict regulations are necessary to reduce pollution and address environmental threats.
Hilton Faces an Uphill Road to November
The election is not settled, and voter preferences could change as the campaign develops. Debates, advertising, economic conditions and unexpected events could all influence the final result.
However, the size of Becerra’s current advantage illustrates the challenge confronting Hilton and the Republican Party.
To make the race competitive, Hilton would likely need overwhelming support from Republicans, a much stronger performance among independents and increased backing from voters dissatisfied with California’s current direction.
PPIC surveyed 1,578 California adults, including 1,003 likely voters, between June 29 and July 6. The survey was conducted in English and Spanish.