President Donald Trump and Texas Republicans are facing fresh political headwinds after a new statewide poll suggested the Lone Star State’s U.S. Senate race may be tighter than many expected.
A new survey from Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) found Democratic nominee James Talarico leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by five percentage points among likely Texas voters ahead of November’s election.
According to the poll, 45 percent of respondents said they currently support Talarico, while 40 percent backed Paxton. Neither candidate has reached the important 50-percent mark since winning their respective party primaries earlier this year, signaling that a significant number of voters remain undecided.
Poll Raises New Questions For Republicans
Perhaps the most surprising finding involves voters without a college degree—a demographic that has consistently helped fuel Republican victories in Texas and nationwide.
The TPOR survey found Talarico holding an advantage with those voters, a development that could create concern for Republicans if that trend continues through Election Day.
The survey also reflected Texas’ recent presidential voting history. Among those questioned, 53 percent said they voted for President Donald Trump in the 2024 election, compared with 42 percent who supported former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Despite Trump’s strong showing among the poll’s respondents, Paxton has not yet translated that Republican support into a clear lead in the Senate contest.
Race Continues To Tighten
The latest numbers are consistent with earlier polling that suggested Democrats may have an opportunity to make the race competitive.
A previous TPOR survey conducted after Paxton defeated longtime Republican Sen. John Cornyn in the GOP runoff showed Talarico leading by 47 percent to 44 percent.
Meanwhile, a New York Times/Siena College survey released in June found the race deadlocked at 47 percent each, underscoring just how competitive the election has become.
Political observers increasingly view the Texas Senate contest as one of the most important races in the country, with control of the Senate potentially hanging in the balance.
Massive Fundraising Advantage
Money has also become a major storyline.
Campaign finance reports show Talarico raised approximately $28 million during the latest fundraising quarter, while Paxton reported bringing in roughly $1.6 million.
That financial advantage could allow Democrats to flood Texas television, radio, and digital platforms with advertising in the final months of the campaign, increasing pressure on Republicans to close the fundraising gap.
Election Ratings Shift
Following Cornyn’s primary defeat, several election analysts revised their outlook for the race.
The respected Cook Political Report changed its rating from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican,” signaling that while Republicans remain favored, the contest appears significantly more competitive than previously expected.
Even so, history remains on the GOP’s side.
Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since Bob Krueger briefly served in 1993, making any Democratic victory an uphill battle.
What Comes Next?
With months remaining before voters cast their ballots, both parties are expected to invest millions of dollars in advertising, voter outreach, and campaign operations.
Republicans will likely argue that Texas remains a conservative state that consistently backs GOP candidates, while Democrats hope changing demographics and record fundraising can produce an upset.
Whether this latest poll reflects a lasting shift or simply a snapshot in time remains to be seen. However, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: the Texas Senate race is shaping up to be one of the biggest political battles in America, and both parties know the stakes could not be higher.
The TPOR poll surveyed 1,048 likely Texas voters between July 15 and July 17 and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.