This was surprising.
President Donald Trump’s approval rating may be turning a corner after weeks of negative headlines, according to veteran poll analyst Nate Silver—offering cautious optimism for Republicans as the 2026 midterm elections approach.
In a recent post on his Silver Bulletin Substack, Silver wrote that President Trump’s approval numbers have rebounded modestly from their lowest point of his second term, which occurred in late November. While Trump remains less popular than he was before the government shutdown, Silver acknowledged that the downward slide appears to have slowed—and partially reversed.
Why Trump’s Approval Rating Matters Ahead of 2026
Although President Trump will not appear on the ballot in November 2026, midterm elections are widely viewed as a national judgment on the sitting president’s performance. Historically, the party in power often faces headwinds, making approval ratings a key political indicator.
Recent polling losses and disappointing GOP results in late 2025 raised alarms within Republican circles. With such slim margins in Congress, even minor shifts in voter sentiment could have major consequences.
Republicans currently hold:
- A 219–214 majority in the House of Representatives
- A 53–47 majority in the Senate
Losing just a handful of seats could stall or derail President Trump’s legislative agenda for the remainder of his term.
Latest Polling Shows Signs of Improvement
According to Silver’s polling average:
- 42.8% approve of Trump’s job performance
- 54% disapprove, resulting in a net approval of -11 points
While still negative, this represents a noticeable improvement from late November.
Other polls reinforce that trend:
- Economist/YouGov: Trump’s approval improved by roughly five points compared to earlier surveys, though he remains underwater overall.
- I&I/TIPP (December): Trump’s net approval narrowed to -3 points, up from -8 points the previous month.
- Reuters/Ipsos: Approval rose to 41%, a three-point increase from November.
- Morning Consult: Trump now holds a net-positive approval rating in 22 states, slightly better than at the same stage during his first term.
Younger Voters Show Modest Shift
Even among millennials—voters traditionally less favorable to Republicans—polling shows incremental movement. Economist/YouGov data indicates Trump’s net approval among this group improved by several points since early fall, though it remains negative overall.
Critics Remain Skeptical
Not everyone is convinced the trend will last. Calvin Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University, told Newsweek that Trump’s support has softened over time, particularly among younger voters and minority groups that provided stronger backing in 2024.
According to Jillson, these shifts explain why Democrats remain confident heading into the 2026 midterms.
What Comes Next
Approval ratings are fluid, especially during a second term marked by legislative battles, economic pressures, and global uncertainty. With nearly a year before voters head to the polls, momentum—not one-off polls—will matter most.
For Republicans, even a modest rebound in President Trump’s approval rating could help unify the party, motivate voters, and defend razor-thin congressional majorities as the 2026 midterms draw closer.