Here’s what happened.
President Donald Trump and Texas Republicans are facing a potentially troubling development in the race for U.S. Senate, as a new poll shows Democratic state Rep. James Talarico moving ahead of Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
The latest Texas Pulse/Texas A&M Bush School poll gives Talarico 47% support among likely Texas voters, while Paxton receives 43%.
That four-point advantage represents a shift from the group’s June survey, when Talarico and Paxton were tied at 46% each.
Although the latest difference falls within the survey’s 4.7-point margin of error, the movement could still get the attention of Republicans. Texas has been one of the GOP’s most important political strongholds for decades, and Paxton has the backing of Trump.
With control of the Senate at stake in the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans will have plenty of reasons to watch what happens next.
Independent Voters Give Talarico A Major Boost
Perhaps the most significant finding involves Texas independent voters.
Talarico leads Paxton among independents by 53% to 30%, according to the survey. That 23-point advantage could help explain why the Democrat has moved ahead in the overall numbers.
Lindsey Hendren, senior research analyst at ReconMR, said the movement during the previous two months was largely driven by independents shifting toward Talarico.
That could become a major concern for Republicans if the trend continues.
Both parties have dependable bases of support, but independent and undecided voters can determine the outcome of a competitive statewide election.
For Paxton, winning back some of those Texans could therefore become a major priority as Election Day approaches.
Trump-Backed Paxton Still Has Important Advantages
The poll isn’t entirely bad news for Paxton.
The Republican attorney general continues to hold a significant advantage in rural Texas, where conservative voters have traditionally played an important role in delivering statewide victories for the GOP.
Paxton also has Trump’s endorsement, potentially giving him a powerful asset when it comes to energizing the Republican base and driving conservative turnout.
Another important advantage involves the southern border.
When voters were asked which candidate they preferred on securing the Texas-Mexico border, Paxton held a narrow advantage over Talarico.
Border security and illegal immigration have remained major issues for Texas voters, and Republicans could make them central themes of the Senate campaign.
The survey also found that Texans view Paxton as the tougher candidate.
Talarico Builds Large Lead Among Young Voters
One of Talarico’s strongest advantages comes from younger Texans.
Among voters between the ages of 18 and 34, 66% support the Democrat, compared with only 23% who back Paxton.
Whether that large polling advantage translates into actual votes could depend heavily on turnout.
Older Americans have historically participated in elections at higher rates than younger voters, making enthusiasm and turnout especially important when interpreting polling results among different age groups.
The poll also reveals a significant gender divide.
Women favor Talarico by a 53% to 40% margin, while Paxton leads among men 47% to 41%.
Those numbers illustrate the very different coalitions each candidate may need to assemble to win statewide.
Rural Texas Remains A Republican Stronghold
The political differences become even clearer when looking at geography.
Talarico performs particularly well around Austin and the Dallas-Fort Worth region, while Paxton maintains a large advantage across rural portions of Texas.
Houston and San Antonio are much more evenly divided, according to the survey.
Those regional differences could make voter turnout critical.
Republicans will likely need strong participation from rural communities and conservative voters, while Democrats will want to maximize turnout in major metropolitan areas.
Texas Republicans have successfully assembled that statewide coalition for years. Democrats, however, continue searching for an opportunity to break the GOP’s longstanding winning streak.
Affordability Could Become A Major Campaign Issue
The survey also tested the candidates against several issues affecting Texas families.
Talarico performed better than Paxton when voters were asked about affordability, keeping Texans safe and managing the state’s water supply.
Affordability could prove particularly important.
Household expenses, grocery bills, housing costs, energy prices, taxes and the broader economy remain issues that directly affect millions of Americans.
Republicans may attempt to counter Talarico’s advantage by focusing on conservative economic policies, border security, public safety and the differences between the Republican and Democratic agendas.
Paxton’s campaign also has an opportunity to argue that Republican policies are better suited to preserving the business-friendly environment and economic growth that have helped attract families and companies to Texas.
Paxton Faces A Difficult Perception Problem
Another potential obstacle for Paxton involves how voters personally view the candidates.
Veteran pollster and Texas A&M visiting professor Clifford Young said respondents tended to see Talarico as honest, authentic and connected with Texas values.
Paxton scored better when voters were asked about toughness, but the Republican encountered more negative perceptions in other areas.
The most striking finding involved corruption.
The poll found 55% of voters considered Paxton corrupt, compared with 35% who did not.
That perception could give Democrats an obvious line of attack during the general election.
Talarico has a vulnerability of his own. According to Young’s analysis, voters narrowly question whether the Democrat is tough enough.
Republicans could attempt to capitalize on that weakness by emphasizing border enforcement, crime, national security and other issues where voters may place a premium on strength and experience.
Trump’s Endorsement Raises The Stakes
Trump’s support for Paxton adds another dimension to the Texas Senate contest.
The president remains the dominant figure within the Republican Party, and his endorsement could help Paxton consolidate conservatives who may have reservations about the attorney general.
At the same time, Democrats would undoubtedly like to portray the election as a referendum on both Paxton and Trump’s agenda.
That means the race could become much larger than a contest between two Texas politicians.
A competitive Senate election in Texas could attract enormous amounts of national attention, campaign spending and outside political involvement.
Republicans would prefer to avoid spending substantial resources defending a state they have traditionally been able to count on.
One Poll Does Not Decide An Election
Despite the headlines generated by Talarico’s advantage, there are important reasons to keep the numbers in perspective.
The Texas Pulse/Texas A&M Bush School survey questioned 619 likely Texas voters between July 27 and July 30 using landlines, cellphones and text-to-web responses.
Its overall margin of error is 4.7 percentage points.
That means Talarico’s four-point advantage should not be interpreted as proof that he is definitively leading the race. The poll instead suggests a competitive contest in which either candidate could potentially be ahead.
Polling can also change considerably as voters learn more about candidates, campaigns begin spending heavily on advertising, debates take place and Election Day gets closer.
Turnout will ultimately matter far more than any individual survey.
Texas Senate Race Could Become A National Battleground
For decades, Republicans have been accustomed to winning statewide elections in Texas.
The latest numbers do not mean that advantage has disappeared.
Paxton retains Trump’s endorsement, strong support in rural Texas and an advantage on one of the state’s most politically important issues: securing the southern border.
But Talarico’s strength among independents, women and younger voters gives Republicans something they cannot simply dismiss.
If Democrats can maintain those advantages while remaining competitive elsewhere, Republicans could find themselves forced to devote considerably more attention and resources to Texas than originally expected.
For Trump and the GOP, the immediate challenge is clear: rally conservative voters, improve Paxton’s standing among independents and prevent Democrats from turning a traditionally Republican Senate seat into one of the country’s biggest political battles.
The poll is only one snapshot of the race.
But if the trend continues, Trump’s Talarico problem could become much harder for Republicans to ignore.