This was an unexpected turn of events.
Former President Donald Trump’s appeal among Muslim-American voters has notably strengthened compared to four years ago, according to a recent poll. If the 2024 election were held today, Trump, now 78, would secure the support of 30% of Muslim voters—a significant increase from the 23% he garnered against Joe Biden in the previous election. This insight comes from the Rainey Center, a public policy research nonprofit known for its nonpartisan approach.
In contrast, Vice President Kamala Harris is projected to receive 62% of the Muslim vote, according to the same survey. This poll sampled a diverse group with 49% registered Democrats, 28% independents, and 18% Republicans. Notably, 60% of respondents supported Biden in 2020.
When considering a hypothetical six-way race, Harris’s support appears to diminish compared to Biden’s past performance. The poll indicates that in this scenario, 56% of Muslim voters would choose Harris, 25% would back Trump, while the remaining votes would be distributed among Jill Stein of the Green Party (3%), Cornel West (1%), and other candidates.
A Siena College/New York Times poll from May revealed that Biden was actually trailing Trump among Middle Eastern, North African, and Muslim voters before he exited the race on July 21. Furthermore, another recent survey by the Council on American-Islamic Relations showed Stein and Harris tied at 29% support among Muslims, with Trump at 11%.
The Rainey Center poll also reveals that Muslim voters are primarily concerned with issues like the economy and crime. A significant portion expressed high concern over various social issues, including rising transgender medical treatments for minors, the perceived threat of far-right ideologies, and the erosion of parental rights in education. Despite these concerns, a majority still feel that the Democratic Party aligns more closely with their views on key issues like foreign policy and the Israel-Hamas conflict.
With 82% of respondents indicating they are likely to vote on November 5, and 15% undecided, the polling data offers a snapshot of a shifting political landscape among Muslim-American voters. The survey, conducted from August 23-29, included 600 participants and has a margin of error of ±4.8%.