Texas is suddenly home to one of the most closely watched U.S. Senate contests of the 2026 midterm elections.
A new poll shows Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leading Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton by five percentage points, adding to a series of surveys suggesting the longtime Republican stronghold could see an unusually competitive Senate race this November.
The latest Texas Public Opinion Research survey found Talarico with 49% support among likely voters, compared with 44% for Paxton. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown received 3%, while another 3% of voters remained undecided.
The poll was conducted Sept. 19-22 among 1,007 likely Texas voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
With Election Day approaching, the numbers are attracting national attention because Republicans are working to protect their Senate majority while Democrats are looking for opportunities in states that have historically favored the GOP.
Talarico Holds Another Lead Over Paxton
The newest survey is not an isolated result.
Texas Public Opinion Research also showed Talarico leading Paxton in its previous monthly poll. In that survey, Talarico received 48% support compared with 42% for Paxton.
That means the Democrat’s advantage changed only slightly between the two surveys.
Although polling can shift quickly during the final weeks of an election, the back-to-back results suggest the race deserves continued attention from both parties.
Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since Lloyd Bentsen won reelection in 1988, making the current contest especially notable.
Independent Voters Could Be Critical
One of the most significant findings in the latest Texas Senate poll involves independent voters.
Talarico received 58% support among independents, while Paxton received 26%. Another 5% of independent voters said they were undecided.
That gap could become important because close statewide races are often decided by voters who do not consistently identify with either major political party.
The demographic breakdown also reveals major differences between the two candidates.
Paxton led among white voters and Texans age 55 and older.
Talarico performed better among Latino voters, Black voters, Texans under age 55 and college-educated voters. The survey also showed him leading among both male and female respondents.
Those divisions highlight how turnout could ultimately shape the outcome.
Older Texas Voters Remain a Paxton Strength
One encouraging sign for Paxton is his continued strength among older voters.
Texans age 55 and above remain an important voting bloc, particularly in midterm elections, where older Americans have historically participated at higher rates than many younger groups.
Paxton’s advantage with this demographic gives his campaign an established base as Republicans work to close the broader polling gap.
However, Talarico’s strength among younger and independent voters means both campaigns have clear constituencies they will likely focus on during the final stretch.
Why Talarico Supporters Say They Back Him
The survey also asked voters why they support their preferred candidate.
Among Talarico supporters, 21% cited general approval of the candidate as their main reason.
Another 17% described him as a supporter of ordinary people, while 15% pointed to qualities such as honesty, integrity and character.
Ten percent said they were backing Talarico because they wanted change or new leadership.
Those findings suggest that personality and perceptions of leadership are playing a role alongside traditional policy concerns.
Why Paxton Supporters Are Staying With Him
Paxton’s supporters gave somewhat different reasons for their choice.
Twenty-five percent cited general approval of the Texas attorney general as their primary motivation.
Another 23% said opposition to Talarico was their main reason for supporting Paxton.
Seventeen percent cited party loyalty, while 14% pointed to Paxton’s record in public office.
Paxton has spent years as one of the most prominent Republican officials in Texas and has frequently been involved in high-profile legal battles over federal policy.
That statewide name recognition gives him an established political profile as the campaign moves deeper into the fall.
Cost of Living Becomes a Major Issue
Economic concerns could be among the most important issues in the Texas Senate race.
When voters were asked which candidate they trusted more to address the cost of living and improve Texans’ financial circumstances, Talarico received 49% support compared with 42% for Paxton.
Another 6% were undecided.
The issue is especially important because household budgets, inflation, housing costs, groceries, energy prices and other everyday expenses continue to influence political conversations across the country.
For both campaigns, convincing voters that they can improve economic conditions could be critical.
Artificial Intelligence and Data Centers Enter the Campaign
The survey also asked voters about an issue receiving increasing attention in Texas: artificial intelligence and data centers.
Talarico led Paxton 45% to 40% when respondents were asked which candidate they trusted more on those issues.
Eleven percent remained undecided.
Texas has become a major destination for large technology projects and data centers because of its growing population, available land and extensive energy infrastructure.
At the same time, those facilities have sparked debates over electricity demand, water use, energy reliability and local development.
That means technology policy could become a more significant issue in Texas politics than it has been in previous election cycles.
Other Texas Polls Show a Similar Pattern
Several other recent surveys have also shown Talarico with an advantage.
A Marist Poll found Talarico receiving 50% support compared with 44% for Paxton, with 4% undecided.
Another survey from NBC 5 Dallas and the Telemundo Station Group showed a narrower contest, with Talarico at 46% and Paxton at 43%.
Individual polls use different methods and voter models, so their results should not be treated as guarantees of what will happen on Election Day.
However, multiple polls showing a competitive contest have helped elevate the Texas race into the national political spotlight.
Texas Senate Race Moves Into Toss-Up Territory
The Cook Political Report has moved the Texas Senate contest into its “Toss Up” category.
That designation reflects the competitiveness of the race rather than a prediction that either candidate will win.
For Republicans, the change is significant because Texas has traditionally been one of the party’s most dependable states in federal elections.
For Democrats, simply having Texas viewed as competitive creates an opportunity to force Republicans to devote money and campaign resources to defending a seat that might once have required far less national attention.
Republican Groups Pour Money Into Texas
National Republican organizations are already investing heavily in the contest.
A Texas affiliate connected to the Senate Leadership Fund has spent money supporting Republican efforts in the state.
President Donald Trump’s political network has also become involved.
Trump-aligned super PAC MAGA Inc. contributed $5 million toward efforts connected to the Texas Senate race, according to Federal Election Commission filings previously reported by national media outlets.
The spending underscores how important Republicans consider the seat as they try to maintain control of the U.S. Senate.
Why the Race Matters to Trump
Trump is not personally on the ballot in November, but the Texas contest carries broader political implications for his administration.
Midterm elections traditionally become a referendum of sorts on the party controlling the White House, although individual candidates, local issues and state political dynamics can significantly affect each race.
A Marist survey found that 39% of Texas registered voters said their congressional vote would primarily represent opposition to Trump.
Twenty-five percent said their vote would primarily represent support for the president, while 34% said Trump would not be a factor in their decision.
Those numbers do not determine the outcome of the Senate race, but they demonstrate why national political figures are watching Texas closely.
Republicans Still Have Major Advantages in Texas
Despite the recent polling, Democrats face a significant historical challenge.
Republicans have dominated statewide elections in Texas for decades.
No Democrat has won a statewide Texas election since 1994, and the party has not captured a U.S. Senate seat there since the late 1980s.
That history means polling leads alone cannot erase the Republican Party’s longstanding organizational and electoral advantages.
Paxton’s campaign will also have opportunities to consolidate Republican voters who may currently be undecided or less enthusiastic.
The final weeks of the race could therefore look very different from the polling picture seen in September.
Turnout Could Decide the Texas Senate Race
As with many closely contested elections, voter turnout may ultimately be more important than headline polling numbers.
Republicans traditionally benefit from strong participation among older and conservative voters in Texas.
Democrats will likely need substantial turnout among younger voters, minority voters and independents if they hope to overcome the GOP’s historical statewide advantage.
Early voting, campaign enthusiasm and late-breaking political developments could all influence the final result.
A Texas Race With National Consequences
The Texas Senate contest is no longer attracting attention simply because of the candidates.
It has become part of the broader fight over control of Congress.
Every Senate seat matters when the chamber is closely divided, and forcing either political party to spend heavily in unexpected states can affect campaign strategy nationwide.
For Republicans, keeping Texas in the GOP column would preserve a seat the party has controlled for decades.
For Democrats, making the race competitive gives the party another possible route in its effort to gain Senate seats.
The latest polling does not determine what Texas voters will decide on Election Day.
But with Talarico holding leads in several recent surveys, Paxton maintaining strength with older voters and national Republican organizations investing heavily in the state, Texas has emerged as one of the Senate races to watch during the closing weeks of the 2026 midterm campaign.