Trump Holding Lead In Senate
Republicans remain in a strong position to keep control of the U.S. Senate, even as Democrats gain momentum in several of the nation’s most closely watched races, according to new polling from The New York Times and Siena College.
The latest surveys show Democrats making competitive runs in six critical Senate contests, but the GOP continues to hold the overall advantage in the battle for the Senate majority. With the midterm elections approaching, both parties are focusing heavily on a handful of states that could determine the balance of power in Washington.
North Carolina currently represents Democrats’ strongest pickup opportunity. Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley by seven percentage points, 50% to 43%, in the race to replace retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis.
In Maine, Democratic challenger Graham Platner holds a narrow edge over longtime Republican Sen. Susan Collins. The poll shows Platner receiving 49% support compared to Collins’ 47%, making it one of the closest races in the country.
Texas remains another major battleground. Democrat James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton are tied at 47% each after Paxton secured the Republican nomination over longtime Sen. John Cornyn. While Democrats view the race as a rare opportunity in the traditionally Republican state, GOP leaders remain confident Texas voters will keep the Senate seat in Republican hands.
Republicans also maintain slight advantages in three additional competitive races.
In Iowa, Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson leads Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek by two points, 48% to 46%, in the contest to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.
Alaska is shaping up to be another closely watched race. Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola trails incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by just two points, 47% to 45%, as voters prepare for the state’s August primary.
Meanwhile, in Ohio, Republican Sen. Jon Husted holds a slim three-point lead over former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, leading 50% to 47% in another contest expected to attract significant national attention.
Although Democrats have become more competitive across several states, the path to a Senate majority remains challenging. The party must gain four seats to take control of the chamber, while Republicans are working to defend their majority and expand their influence in Congress.
The polling also found that several Democratic candidates are outperforming the national image of their party following setbacks in the 2024 election cycle. Democratic voters surveyed across the six battleground states were also slightly more likely than Republicans to say they were almost certain to vote this November.
Economic concerns continue to shape the political landscape heading into the election. Only 36% of respondents approved of President Trump’s handling of the cost of living, while 33% approved of his approach to gasoline prices. His handling of the conflict involving Iran received 39% approval, highlighting ongoing concerns among voters about both domestic and foreign policy issues.
A separate generic congressional ballot average compiled by Decision Desk HQ currently gives Democrats a four-point advantage nationwide, suggesting that House races could remain highly competitive even as Republicans continue to hold the advantage in the Senate map.
Despite encouraging signs for Democrats in several high-profile races, the latest polling indicates Republicans remain the favorites to retain control of the Senate if current voting trends continue. With several months remaining before Election Day, both parties are expected to invest heavily in advertising, voter outreach, and grassroots efforts as the fight for the Senate majority intensifies.
The New York Times and Siena College conducted the surveys between June 15 and June 29, interviewing 3,659 registered voters across Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. Approximately 600 voters were surveyed in each state, with a margin of error of roughly five percentage points among likely voters.