This would be massive for Trump and the GOP.
Republicans are threatening to break one of the longest political losing streaks in Oregon history as a new poll shows GOP gubernatorial candidate Christine Drazan virtually tied with Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek.
If Drazan wins in November, she would become Oregon’s first Republican elected governor since Victor Atiyeh won reelection in 1982 — ending a drought that has lasted more than four decades.
The latest Oregon Public Broadcasting poll shows just how competitive the race has become.
After undecided voters were asked which candidate they leaned toward, Drazan received 47% support and Kotek received 46%. Pacific Green Party candidate Brett Smith received 3%, while about 5% remained undecided.
But the one-point difference falls well inside the survey’s 3.24-percentage-point margin of error, meaning the race is statistically tied.
For Republicans, simply being this competitive in Oregon represents a major political opportunity.
Republican Christine Drazan Within Reach of Historic Oregon Victory
The DHM Research poll for OPB surveyed 915 likely Oregon voters from September 17 through September 27.
Before undecided voters were pressed for their leanings, Drazan stood at 46%, Kotek at 44% and Smith at 3%.
The result continues a months-long pattern of polling showing a much tighter contest than Democrats might have expected in a state they have dominated in gubernatorial elections for decades.
Oregon has not elected a Republican governor since Atiyeh secured his second term in 1982.
Atiyeh served as governor from 1979 until 1987. Every elected governor who followed him has been a Democrat.
That gives the 2026 contest significance far beyond a normal governor’s race.
Oregon Voters Unhappy With Direction of State
One reason the contest appears so competitive is widespread dissatisfaction with conditions in Oregon.
According to the OPB poll, only 29% of likely voters said the state is headed in the right direction. Another 58% said Oregon is on the wrong track.
Economic concerns are particularly prominent.
When voters were asked to identify Oregon’s biggest problem, cost of living, housing affordability, taxes and employment concerns accounted for a large portion of the responses.
Homelessness and dissatisfaction with state leadership also ranked prominently.
Those concerns have helped place issues such as inflation, affordability and government performance at the center of the governor’s race.
Economy Could Play Major Role in Governor’s Race
The economy is one of the clearest dividing lines between Drazan and Kotek.
Drazan has made economic growth, housing, homelessness, education and government accountability central themes of her campaign.
Her campaign argues that years of Democratic control have failed to resolve many of Oregon’s most persistent problems.
Campaign strategist Trey Rosser said recent polls show voters from different political backgrounds becoming increasingly frustrated with Kotek’s leadership.
The Kotek campaign rejects that argument and has instead emphasized the governor’s positions on abortion access, LGBTQ+ protections and opposition to policies coming from the Trump administration.
That leaves voters with two very different campaign messages.
Drazan is asking voters to judge Democrats largely on conditions inside Oregon.
Kotek is warning voters about what Republican leadership could mean for the state, particularly when combined with a Republican administration in Washington.
Donald Trump Becomes Factor in Oregon Election
President Donald Trump is not on the ballot, but both campaigns understand that his presidency could influence the contest.
Kotek has repeatedly attempted to connect Drazan with Trump and the national Republican Party.
Drazan, meanwhile, has generally tried to keep the race focused on Oregon-specific concerns, including schools, housing, taxes, homelessness and economic growth.
The OPB poll suggests neither Trump nor Kotek is particularly popular with the Oregon electorate.
Trump received a favorable rating from 37% of likely voters, while 63% viewed him unfavorably.
Kotek’s favorable rating stood at 38%, while 60% viewed her unfavorably.
Drazan had a more evenly divided image, with 45% viewing her favorably and 45% unfavorably.
Those numbers help explain why the governor’s race remains competitive despite Oregon’s Democratic lean in presidential elections.
Oregon Still Leans Democratic
Republicans nevertheless face significant political history.
No Republican presidential nominee has carried Oregon since Ronald Reagan in 1984.
Democrats have also maintained their hold on the governor’s mansion for decades.
Independent election analyst Cook Political Report moved the Oregon governor’s race from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat” in September, reflecting the contest’s increasing competitiveness while still giving Democrats the structural advantage in its race rating.
That makes Oregon one of the relatively rare 2026 governor’s races that has moved toward Republicans.
But the latest polling does not establish Drazan as the favorite or predict the eventual winner.
Instead, it shows a close contest with Election Day still ahead.
Republicans Have Seen This Scenario Before
There is another reason for Republicans to remain cautious: 2022.
Drazan also ran against Kotek four years ago and performed strongly in polling during parts of that campaign.
Kotek ultimately won the election.
The circumstances in 2026 are different, but the previous race illustrates why a narrow polling advantage should not be confused with an election victory.
This time, however, voters appear particularly dissatisfied with the state’s direction, and affordability has become one of the campaign’s dominant concerns.
Cost of Living and Taxes Dominate Voter Concerns
Pocketbook issues could ultimately determine which candidate wins.
The latest polling shows that the cost of living and economy are near-universal concerns among likely Oregon voters.
Housing affordability, taxes, homelessness, schools and health care are also major considerations.
That creates an opening for Drazan’s argument that Oregon needs a different approach to economic and state-government policy.
Kotek is countering by highlighting areas where Democrats believe Oregon voters are more aligned with her positions, particularly social issues.
The result is a campaign increasingly divided between economic dissatisfaction and broader ideological concerns.
Data Centers Become Surprise Election Issue
One unexpected subject has also moved into the spotlight: artificial intelligence and data centers.
Oregon is an important market for large-scale computing facilities, and controversy has grown over their electricity consumption, tax treatment and impact on surrounding communities.
The dispute has prompted both candidates to sharpen their positions.
Kotek has supported pausing the development of new data centers, while Drazan has also backed an immediate pause as officials consider the industry’s future.
Interestingly, relatively few voters identify data centers themselves as Oregon’s single biggest problem.
But when voters are specifically asked whether the candidates’ positions on data centers matter, the issue receives considerably more attention.
That makes it another policy fight worth watching as Election Day approaches.
Could Republicans Finally Break Oregon’s 44-Year Streak?
A Drazan victory would carry substantial historical significance.
The last Republican elected governor of Oregon was Victor Atiyeh, who won reelection in 1982 and remained in office until January 1987.
Republicans have spent the decades since trying unsuccessfully to retake the governor’s mansion.
Now, Drazan has brought the GOP within striking distance again.
The latest poll does not mean Republicans are headed for certain victory. A 47%-46% result inside a 3.24-point margin of error is effectively a tie, and Oregon’s long Democratic history remains an important factor.
But the numbers show something that would have appeared unlikely earlier in the election cycle: Oregon’s governor’s race is genuinely competitive.
With costs, taxes, housing, homelessness and education weighing heavily on voters, the final weeks could determine whether Kotek extends Democratic control of the governor’s office — or whether Republicans finally end a political drought dating back to 1982.