Biden is not going to be happy about this, that’s forsure.
The current perception of the two leading candidates for the 2024 presidential election is characterized by concerns of corruption and doubts about their mental fitness to effectively serve as President. This sentiment is shared by a significant portion of voters.
According to Fox, a majority, constituting 61%, express reservations about Joe Biden’s mental acuity for the role of President. This apprehension has been on a consistent rise over the past three years, with a 5-point increase since last year, a substantial 13-point increase compared to 2021, and a notable 16-point increase since 2020.
In contrast, the latest national survey conducted by Fox News suggests that 46% believe Donald Trump possesses the cognitive capability necessary for the presidency, while a larger portion, 52%, hold the opposite view.
While more voters perceive Biden as lacking mental sharpness, a smaller proportion believes he is dishonest. When asked about the term “corrupt” in relation to each candidate, 56% attribute it to Trump, while 48% associate it with Biden. It’s worth noting that the percentage of people who consider Biden corrupt has risen by 7 points since the week before the 2020 election, reaching 41%, while Trump’s figure has remained stable at 56%.
Breaking down the data, 11% of Democrats view Biden as corrupt, and 26% believe he lacks the mental fitness required for the presidency. Among Republicans, 20% believe Trump is corrupt, and 15% question his cognitive suitability for the role.
The poll, released on Thursday, shows that seven potential 2024 head-to-head matchups are closely contested, with none of the candidates receiving 50% support. In four hypothetical races, Republicans hold a slight advantage over Biden (with Trump and Nikki Haley ahead by 2 points, and Vivek Ramaswamy and Mike Pence up by 1 point). Biden leads in three matchups (with a 3-point advantage over Ron DeSantis and a 1-point lead over Tim Scott and Chris Christie).
While the differences between the candidates’ levels of support are relatively small, they indicate that the election would be highly competitive if held today (though it is not).
In a hypothetical Biden-Trump matchup, Biden’s support has declined among several key demographics compared to the fall of 2020, including suburban women (down by 12 points), women (-11), Black voters (-10), voters under the age of 45 (-7), and Hispanic voters (-5). Conversely, this support has shifted in favor of Trump, who has seen an improvement in his standing among suburban women (up by 13 points), women (+10), Black voters (+7), Hispanic voters (+7), and those under the age of 45 (+6) compared to late October 2020.
Independents now prefer Trump over Biden by a margin of 10 points, marking a significant shift from late October 2020 when they favored Biden by 20 points.