Democrats could be barking up the wrong tree.
Democrats Target Trump Territory in Florida Special Election — But GOP Remains Strong
The Democratic National Committee is setting its sights on a deep-red Florida district ahead of next week’s special House election — but Republicans are confident the seat will stay firmly in conservative hands.
This weekend, DNC Chair Ken Martin will visit Florida’s 6th Congressional District to support Democrat candidate Josh Weil. The pair are expected to make campaign stops in St. Augustine and Daytona Beach, while Martin will also attend a roundtable with Latino leaders in nearby Orlando — a Democrat-leaning area outside the district.
Democrats Face Tough Odds in Trump Country
The 6th District is no easy ground for Democrats. President Donald Trump and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz both carried the district by over 30 points in the last election. The region has consistently backed strong conservative values, including secure borders, a strong military, and pro-growth economic policies.
Still, Martin says his visit is part of a larger effort to expand Democrat outreach nationwide. “The stakes are too high not to compete across the map,” he said in a statement, highlighting what the DNC calls its “Organizing Everywhere” strategy.
Martin’s Florida stop is part of a broader national tour — the 13th state he’s visited since becoming DNC chair earlier this year.
Florida: A Republican Stronghold Under President Trump
Once considered a battleground, Florida has become a Republican stronghold in recent years. Under President Trump’s leadership, the Sunshine State saw a major political shift. In the last election, Trump won Florida by a decisive 13-point margin and flipped historically Democrat counties like Miami-Dade and Osceola.
Now, attention is turning to the open seat in Florida’s 6th District, previously held by Mike Waltz. While Democrat Josh Weil has raised nearly $10 million for his campaign, Republican State Sen. Randy Fine has built strong grassroots momentum and earned key endorsements.
Trump, Scott Back GOP Candidates in Key Florida Races
Sen. Rick Scott and President Trump have both endorsed Fine, as well as Republican candidate Jimmy Patronis in Florida’s 1st District — another area where Democrats are hoping to gain traction.
“Randy Fine is committed to securing the border, supporting our military, and standing with Israel,” Sen. Scott said. “He’s the right choice to partner with President Trump in delivering results for the American people.”
Outside support is also playing a role. Elon Musk’s America PAC has invested over $10,000 in digital outreach for both Fine and Patronis, further signaling Republican momentum heading into the vote.
GOP Expected to Hold the Line — But Dems Hope for a Closer Race
Even with national attention, political analysts agree that Florida’s 6th District remains a Republican stronghold. Governor Ron DeSantis noted this week that the district’s conservative base makes a Democrat win unlikely — though the margin may be narrower than in past elections.
“The district is solidly Republican,” DeSantis said. “A GOP candidate will win. It’s just a matter of by how much.”
Democrats hope that even a closer-than-expected result will give them momentum heading into the 2026 midterms. Their recent special election victory in a Pennsylvania state Senate race — in a district that voted for Trump — has fueled optimism among liberal strategists.
But in Florida, where conservative values run deep and President Trump’s support remains strong, Republicans are ready to defend their ground — and deliver another win for the America First agenda.