Things are not looking good days away from the election.
Recent analyses indicate that Vice President Kamala Harris may be in a more precarious position with swing voters compared to President Joe Biden’s standing in the lead-up to the 2020 election. Current polling reveals a tightening race between Harris, the Democratic nominee, and former President Donald Trump, the Republican frontrunner, with the contest nearly neck-and-neck both nationally and in key battleground states.
A report from Impact Social highlights that Harris trails Biden’s performance among swing voters by a significant margin, despite being 9 points ahead of Biden’s position at this time four years ago. Phil Snape of Impact Social notes that unlike Biden, who was able to position himself as the “not-Trump” candidate, Harris is unable to distance herself from pressing issues such as inflation and immigration. While she may currently have a slim overall lead over Trump, her vulnerability in the eyes of swing voters is more pronounced.
Recent shifts show that both candidates have gained traction among this crucial demographic; however, Trump has surged by 9 points compared to Harris’s more modest 4-point increase. This dynamic suggests that Trump’s base is rallying around him organically, counteracting negative narratives about his fitness for office.
While Harris has seen some positive sentiment surrounding her candidacy, the perception of her as an “incumbent” could hinder her appeal. Polling averages from reputable sources like ABC News and FiveThirtyEight show Harris leading by a narrow margin of about 1.5 points nationally, but Trump maintains an edge in several pivotal states, including Arizona and Georgia.
Looking back at previous election cycles, Harris’s current polling figures are notably weaker than those of both Biden and Hillary Clinton at similar points in their campaigns. In 2016, Clinton led Trump by over 6 points, while Biden had a 9-point advantage in 2020. Both Democrats eventually won the popular vote, but the Electoral College outcomes hinged on critical swing state victories.
As the election approaches, these trends suggest that the Republican base, energized by Trump’s candidacy, may have the upper hand in pivotal battlegrounds, raising the stakes for Harris as she seeks to solidify her position ahead of the 2024 election.