Here’s what voters need to know.
A new internal Republican poll shows businessman Nate Morris rapidly gaining ground in Kentucky’s high-stakes GOP primary to replace retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell, signaling growing momentum for a Trump-aligned outsider as frustration with Washington insiders continues to rise.
The survey, conducted by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates for the Morris campaign, found his support surged 13 percentage points since August—one of the largest gains recorded in the race so far.
Tight Race With Voters Still Up for Grabs
Among likely Republican primary voters statewide, former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron currently leads with 29% support, followed by Rep. Andy Barr at 21% and Morris at 18%. Notably, 29% remain undecided, underscoring how fluid the contest remains ahead of the May primary.
When the numbers are limited to voters who already have an opinion of all three candidates, the race effectively becomes a dead heat. In that scenario, Morris edges ahead with 28%, Cameron follows at 26%, and Barr trails narrowly at 25%—all within the poll’s margin of error.
Trump-Aligned Support Changes the Race
The dynamics shift dramatically once voters are informed of Morris’ backing from prominent conservative figures aligned with President Trump’s political movement. After hearing about that support, Morris jumps to 42%, opening a commanding lead over Cameron at 22% and Barr at 16%.
Just months ago, Morris registered only 5% support, while Cameron dominated with 40% and Barr followed at 17%, highlighting how quickly the race has evolved.
Favorability Surges Among Trump Voters
Morris’ net favorability has also climbed sharply, increasing 14 points since August. According to the polling memo, his strongest gains are coming from Republicans who strongly approve of President Trump—still the most influential bloc in Kentucky GOP primaries.
That enthusiasm appears to extend beyond voters. Last month, tech entrepreneur Elon Musk donated $10 million to a pro-Morris super PAC, Fight for Kentucky, a move that drew national attention to the race.
McConnell Ties Becoming a Liability
The poll also highlights deep dissatisfaction with outgoing Sen. Mitch McConnell. Only 22% of surveyed voters view him favorably, while more than 70% hold an unfavorable opinion.
All three major candidates—Barr, Cameron, and Morris—have worked with or for McConnell at some point, but those connections may now be weighing them down with an increasingly anti-establishment Republican base.
Campaign Cash and Spending Power
Rep. Andy Barr currently leads financially, reporting more than $6.4 million cash on hand, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Morris reported roughly $1.4 million, while Cameron disclosed just over $630,000.
Morris, who founded and later sold the waste-and-recycling company Rubicon in a multibillion-dollar deal, has largely self-funded his campaign and is expected to continue doing so through the May 19 primary.
Endorsements and Attacks Intensify
President Trump has not yet endorsed a candidate, but both Barr and Morris are highlighting support from Trump allies. Barr has secured endorsements from several House Republicans, while Morris has earned backing from multiple conservative senators and former Trump administration officials.
At the same time, Cameron and Barr have criticized Morris over a modest political contribution he made in 2021 to a super PAC that was later linked to Nikki Haley. The donation occurred well before Haley launched her presidential bid, and Morris would go on to become one of President Trump’s leading financial supporters in Kentucky during the most recent election cycle.
Poll Methodology
The January survey questioned 800 likely Republican primary voters between Jan. 27–29 and carries a margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points. Results were compared with an August poll of 600 GOP voters.
Bottom Line for Voters
With nearly one-third of voters still undecided and momentum clearly shifting, the Kentucky Republican primary is shaping up as a referendum on whether the party continues with long-time establishment figures—or embraces a Trump-aligned outsider promising change.