This is not a good sign for Donald Trump.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis emerged victorious in a straw poll at the 2023 Young Republican National Convention, held earlier this month, marking a noteworthy development in the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. This outcome suggests that DeSantis and former President Donald Trump may face a formidable challenge in securing the support of the younger segment of the GOP.
According to Newsweek, The Young Republican National Federation (YRNF) convened its annual convention in Dallas, Texas, spanning from August 16 to August 20. The YRNF’s mission is to engage registered Republicans aged 18 to 40 and equip them with enhanced political knowledge and a better grasp of current issues.
Following the five-day convention, featuring speeches by Texas Governor Greg Abbott, Florida Congresswoman Kat Cammack, and former Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, the poll results revealed that 36.6 percent of attendees favored DeSantis as the next Republican presidential candidate, while Trump garnered 35.4 percent support.
The top five GOP candidates in the poll included businessman Vivek Ramaswamy (9.1 percent), former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley (7.5 percent), and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott (5.5 percent). Approximately 6 percent of participants expressed a preference for an alternative nominee.
Hayden Padgett, the newly elected chairman of YRNF, shared via email with Newsweek that roughly 850 individuals between the ages of 21 and 40 attended the convention. He emphasized that the poll was intended purely for amusement among the group and highlighted the enthusiasm among members for engaging in discussions about the upcoming presidential election.
Trump has consistently held a substantial lead over DeSantis and other GOP contenders in recent months. Even after experiencing a dip in support in a recent Emerson College poll— which has been tracking the 2024 election since the previous summer—Trump still commanded the backing of 50 percent of Republican voters, maintaining a substantial 38-point lead over DeSantis.
Nonetheless, the younger demographic within the electorate could wield significant influence in the election, as has been observed in recent years. According to estimates from the Brookings Institution, if voters under 45 years old turn out at a similar rate in 2024 as they did in 2020, they could constitute nearly half of the total vote in the upcoming general election.
Additionally, younger candidates appear to resonate with Republican voters. Post the first GOP primary debate held the previous week, several polls indicated that the two youngest contenders on the stage—DeSantis, aged 44, and Ramaswamy, aged 38—were perceived as the “winners” of the two-hour event.