Biden is doomed.
Recent polls released by the New York Times, Siena College, and the Philadelphia Inquirer indicate that in five out of six crucial battleground states where President Biden narrowly defeated former President Trump four years ago, Trump now holds an advantage. These surveys, conducted among registered voters, reveal a shift in sentiment driven by concerns over the economy and the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. Additionally, there has been a decline in support for President Biden among younger, Black, and Hispanic voters, posing a challenge to his Democratic coalition.
In the 2020 election, Biden secured victories over Trump by slim margins in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. However, the latest polls show Trump leading Biden in Arizona (49%-42%), Georgia (49%-39%), Michigan (49%-42%), Nevada (50%-38%), and narrowly trailing in Pennsylvania (47%-44%), with Biden holding a slight edge in Wisconsin (47%-45%).
Among likely voters, Trump maintains an advantage in five states – Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – while Biden leads in Michigan. When considering third-party and independent candidates, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is running as an independent after leaving the Democratic Party, the polls suggest he garners around 10% support across these states, drawing equally from both Biden and Trump supporters.
These surveys were conducted between April 28 and May 9 amid Trump’s historic criminal trial, making him the first current or former president to face such charges. Despite a significant ad campaign by the Biden camp in key battleground states, the polls indicate little change in voter sentiment or dissatisfaction with the current political landscape.
The polls highlight widespread discontent among voters, with nearly seven in ten expressing a desire for major changes to the political and economic systems. While Trump appears to be gaining support among demographics that previously favored Biden, such as Black voters, Hispanic voters, and young voters, Biden maintains his ground with older and White voters, who prioritize stability and democracy.
Economic concerns persist, with inflation being a prominent issue despite positive indicators like job growth and a booming stock market. The majority of respondents still view the economy as “poor.”
However, Trump faces challenges on certain social issues, notably abortion, where a significant portion of voters, including some of his supporters, believe it should remain legal.
The polls surveyed over 4,000 voters across Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with a margin of error ranging from plus or minus 3.6 to 4.6 percentage points.