Democrats are seething over this new data.
Recent polling data reveals a notable shift in Black voter support for former President Donald Trump in the 2024 election. According to a Morning Consult survey conducted between August 15 and August 18, Trump has seen a significant increase in backing among Black voters. The poll, which surveyed 11,501 registered voters, indicates that Trump now enjoys support from 21% of Black voters—a substantial 12-point jump from his 2020 numbers. The poll’s margin of error is ±1 percentage point.
This surge in support for Trump among Black voters stands in stark contrast to the Democratic candidates’ numbers. In the 2020 election, then-candidate Joe Biden received overwhelming support from Black voters, capturing 81% of their vote according to the same poll, and Pew Research reported an even higher figure of 92%. However, the current data shows that Vice President Kamala Harris, the newly-named Democratic nominee, garners 72% support among Black voters. Although Harris holds a considerable lead over Trump, she has not experienced the same level of growth in her support base.
The increase in Trump’s support is particularly notable among Black moderates and conservatives. The poll reveals that Trump’s backing among Black moderates has more than doubled, from 8% in 2020 to 19% in 2024. Among Black conservatives, Trump’s support has surged from 24% to 44%. Additionally, the proportion of Black voters with no opinion on the candidates has decreased by 5%.
In comparison, Harris’ support among Black conservatives has declined from 65% in 2020 to 51%, while her support among Black moderates has dropped from 81% to 74%. This shift underscores a changing dynamic in voter sentiment.
Newsweek’s analysis of national polls since early August highlights that Harris generally polls around 76% among Black voters, while Trump trails at 16%. However, it’s important to note that smaller sample sizes, such as the 151 Black respondents in Newsweek’s cited poll, can lead to less reliable results due to higher margins of error.
Both candidates have been actively engaging with Black voters. Trump made headlines with his appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists (NABJ) convention, where he controversially questioned Harris’ racial identity, prompting significant debate. Harris, for her part, has openly addressed her diverse heritage, being the daughter of a Jamaican father and an Indian mother.
This evolving landscape of Black voter support illustrates a shifting political terrain as the 2024 election approaches, highlighting the need for continued engagement and understanding of voter priorities.