President Donald Trump is facing new political headwinds as recent polling suggests his approval rating has declined in several states that strongly supported him during the 2024 presidential election.
While the White House continues to argue that election results are a better measure of public support than individual surveys, the latest state-by-state data is drawing increased attention as Republicans prepare for the 2026 midterm elections.
A new rolling survey from Civiqs found Trump’s national approval rating at 36 percent, while 59 percent of respondents said they disapprove of his job performance. The online poll, which has collected responses from more than 120,000 registered voters since Trump began his second term on January 20, 2025, indicates that his overall approval remains below his disapproval rating.
Although polling is only one measure of public opinion and can change over time, the latest results highlight shifting voter sentiment in several traditionally Republican states.
Trump Approval Rating Weakens in Republican Strongholds
Perhaps the most notable finding from the survey is that Trump now holds a net negative approval rating in 11 states that he won by double-digit margins during the 2024 election against former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Those states include:
- Alaska
- Florida
- Iowa
- Kentucky
- Louisiana
- Mississippi
- Missouri
- Nebraska
- Ohio
- South Carolina
- Texas
While each state remains politically distinct, the survey found that more respondents currently disapprove of Trump’s job performance than approve of it.
The results also suggest that even in many of Trump’s strongest states, his approval has softened since the beginning of his second term. Wyoming and North Dakota continue to rank among his best-performing states, but both have experienced noticeable declines compared with the high approval ratings recorded shortly after his inauguration.
Why These Numbers Matter
Presidential approval ratings often receive close attention because they can influence congressional elections, especially during midterm years when control of Congress is at stake.
Political analysts frequently note that even modest shifts in public opinion can affect competitive House and Senate races, particularly in states where the margins between the parties are relatively narrow.
Republicans currently hold slim majorities in Congress and are working to maintain control through the remainder of Trump’s second term. Democrats, meanwhile, are seeking enough victories to regain control of one or both chambers.
For that reason, polling trends in traditionally Republican states may become an important storyline as campaigns accelerate in the months ahead.
Key Senate Races Could Draw National Attention
Several of the states where Trump’s approval rating has weakened are expected to host closely watched Senate contests.
In Iowa, Ohio and Texas, both political parties are investing significant resources in races that could influence the balance of power in Washington.
Each of those states voted comfortably for Trump in the 2024 presidential election, making them important tests of whether statewide political dynamics have shifted since then.
Campaigns in these states are expected to focus heavily on issues including the economy, inflation, immigration, government spending, border security and public safety—topics that often shape voter priorities during federal elections.
Battleground States Remain Highly Competitive
The survey also found Trump with a net negative approval rating across all seven battleground states that he carried during the 2024 election.
Those states include:
- Arizona
- Georgia
- Michigan
- Nevada
- North Carolina
- Pennsylvania
- Wisconsin
Because these states regularly determine national elections and contain numerous competitive congressional districts, both Republicans and Democrats are expected to devote substantial time and financial resources to winning over undecided voters.
Political strategists from both parties will likely continue monitoring approval ratings in these states as Election Day approaches.
White House Rejects Polling Concerns
The White House has consistently downplayed unfavorable polling, arguing that the president’s 2024 election victory better reflects public support than individual opinion surveys.
Administration officials have pointed to Trump’s policy agenda and election mandate as evidence that voters continue to back his leadership.
A White House spokesperson previously stated that Americans elected President Trump to carry out what the administration describes as a “commonsense agenda,” while emphasizing that the president has made significant progress on both domestic and international priorities.
Polls Are One Indicator—Not the Final Outcome
Public opinion surveys provide a snapshot of voter attitudes at a particular moment, but they do not determine election results. Approval ratings can change as economic conditions, legislative developments and major national events influence public opinion.
With months remaining before the 2026 midterm elections, both parties are expected to closely watch future polling to determine whether these trends continue or begin to reverse.
As the campaign season intensifies, the political landscape in both reliably Republican states and closely contested battlegrounds will remain a major focus for candidates, voters and political observers alike.