A new poll is raising serious questions about a key U.S. Senate race in Texas—and Republicans are paying close attention.
The survey suggests that Democratic candidate James Talarico currently holds a narrow lead over both Republican contenders competing in the upcoming GOP runoff election. While Texas has long been considered a Republican stronghold, early polling indicates the race could become far more competitive than expected.
With control of the U.S. Senate on the line in the upcoming midterm elections, the outcome in Texas could carry major national consequences.
Democrat Wins Primary and Targets GOP Seat
James Talarico, a Texas state representative first elected in 2018, recently secured the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Republican Sen. John Cornyn.
Talarico defeated Democratic challenger Rep. Jasmine Crockett, winning roughly 53 percent of the vote compared with Crockett’s 45.7 percent.
The victory positions Talarico as the Democratic challenger in November’s general election. However, he will not know his Republican opponent until after the May 26 GOP runoff, which will decide whether Cornyn or Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton advances.
Both Republican candidates are well-known figures in Texas politics, setting the stage for what could become one of the most closely watched Senate races in the country.
New Poll Shows Surprisingly Close Race
According to a new poll conducted by Public Policy Polling, the race appears extremely tight.
The survey questioned 576 Texas voters between March 4 and March 5 and was commissioned by the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC.
The results showed:
- Talarico 44% – Cornyn 43%
- Talarico 47% – Paxton 45%
Both matchups fall within the poll’s ±4.1% margin of error, meaning the race is effectively tied.
Even more striking were the favorability ratings.
The poll found Talarico holding a +6 net favorability rating, while Cornyn registered –28 and Paxton –24.
Another Survey Shows Similar Results
A separate poll conducted by YouGov and the University of Houston earlier this year also suggested a razor-thin race.
That survey of 1,502 likely voters found:
- Cornyn leading Talarico 44% to 43%
- Paxton leading 46% to 44%
The poll carried a ±2.5% margin of error, again indicating a highly competitive contest.
Despite these close numbers, prediction market Kalshi still gives the Republican nominee a 63 percent chance of winning, compared with 37 percent for Talarico.
Trump Expected to Play a Major Role
President Donald Trump has not yet officially endorsed a candidate in the Republican runoff.
However, reports indicate Trump is expected to support John Cornyn once the race moves closer to the runoff election.
Trump’s endorsement could prove decisive, as his backing has often reshaped Republican primaries across the country.
With Republican voters deeply loyal to the president, many political observers believe his endorsement could significantly influence the final outcome.
Republicans Defending Senate Majority
The Texas race comes as Republicans work to defend their 53-seat majority in the U.S. Senate.
This election cycle will see 35 Senate seats up for grabs. Democrats would need to flip four Republican seats in order to regain control of the chamber.
That is why Texas—traditionally a Republican state—is drawing increased national attention.
If Democrats were somehow able to win there, it would dramatically improve their chances of blocking parts of President Trump’s policy agenda.
Heated GOP Runoff Battle
The Republican runoff between Ken Paxton and John Cornyn is already becoming increasingly intense.
Paxton recently criticized Cornyn following the primary results, writing on social media:
“Thank you, Texas. Last night, in a historic failure for John Cornyn, he failed to get nearly 60% of the GOP vote after spending $100 million. It’s time to finish the job in the runoff.”
Meanwhile, Talarico has been campaigning across the state and framing his campaign as an underdog movement.
“This movement is about whether the people will hold the power in this state and this country,” he said during a campaign event.
What Happens Next
The Texas Republican runoff election will take place on May 26, determining whether Cornyn or Paxton will face Talarico in November.
The winner will head into the general election as Republicans work to maintain control of the Senate and continue advancing President Trump’s priorities in Washington.
While Texas has not elected a Democrat statewide since 1994, early polling suggests the race could become one of the most closely watched political battles of the upcoming midterm elections.
As the campaign intensifies, both parties will be pouring significant attention—and likely millions of dollars—into the state.