Things are closer than anyone could have expected.
The GOP is entering the 119th Congress with one of the slimmest majorities in modern history, and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) knows there’s no room for error. With the final uncalled race of the 2024 cycle concluded, Republicans now hold a fragile 220-215 majority in the House — but that number will soon shrink.
Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) will resign on January 20 to become national security adviser, and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) is expected to leave for an ambassadorial post, cutting the GOP majority to 217-215. This means the Republicans will have a razor-thin margin, with no wiggle room for defections on party-line votes. Even a single Republican breaking ranks could result in a 216-216 tie, which would sink any GOP-led legislation in the House.
This situation places Speaker Johnson in a tough position as he leads the party into a critical period, especially with former President Donald Trump set to assume the presidency in 2025. The first 100 days of a new GOP-controlled Congress could be pivotal in advancing Trump’s agenda, which includes ambitious priorities like tax reform and addressing the nation’s ballooning debt.
Republicans in the House will have to walk a fine line. Members of the conservative wing, particularly from the House Freedom Caucus, have already signaled they’ll make it difficult for leadership if they don’t get their way on key issues. Lawmakers like Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) have made it clear that they won’t hesitate to hold up business over issues like out-of-control government spending.
Still, there’s optimism among Republicans. Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) believes that under Trump’s leadership, the GOP will have a more unified approach to legislation. With Trump guiding the party, he says, hardliners will likely find themselves in sync with the broader agenda. Even Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), known for his independent streak, acknowledges that Trump’s leadership could help smooth over potential conflicts.
However, the slim majority will undoubtedly put pressure on GOP leadership to make concessions, especially when it comes to sensitive issues like tax reform. A key point of contention could be the state and local tax (SALT) deduction, with some Republicans from higher-tax states pushing to lift the cap. This could create a headache for Speaker Johnson if the party’s more conservative members, already wary of tax increases, don’t agree to such changes.
Despite these challenges, there’s confidence in the Republican ranks. Members like Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) are optimistic about the party’s ability to manage the tight margin, especially with Trump at the helm. They see him as an asset who can help unite the party and overcome internal divisions.
But for now, Republicans are focused on the task at hand: navigating a Congress where every vote counts. As Speaker Johnson puts it, “We have nothing to spare.” With a volatile mix of hardliners and moderates in the GOP, and the potential for Democrats to exploit any cracks in the majority, the 119th Congress will test the strength and unity of the Republican Party like never before.