Kamala is in trouble.
Dan Pfeiffer, a former senior adviser to President Obama, offered some intriguing insights this week about the competitive landscape of the presidential race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Pfeiffer highlighted that many polling and data experts, who are closely analyzing the numbers, believe the race won’t be a cake walk for Kamala Harris, contrary to the more optimistic view held by much of the media and Democratic insiders.
In a recent interview with John Heilemann of Puck News, Pfeiffer pointed out a significant gap between the perceptions of the press corps and the hard data from polling experts. He noted that if you were to survey most journalists and Democratic party members who aren’t directly tied to the Harris-Walz campaign, a significant majority—around 85 percent—would predict a victory for Kamala Harris if the election were held today. However, Pfeiffer emphasized that those deeply immersed in the numbers, especially regarding key battleground states, see a much more competitive scenario.
According to Pfeiffer, recent polls indicate a tight race with Trump and Harris virtually neck and neck. For instance, while CNN’s polling shows Harris with narrow leads in states like Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump is leading in Arizona, and states such as Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania remain too close to call.
Pfeiffer elaborated that, contrary to the more favorable outlook reported by many, the actual data suggests a more balanced contest. “When you look at the battleground states, especially Pennsylvania, the numbers are very close—essentially a toss-up,” Pfeiffer explained. “There’s no clear advantage for either candidate in these key areas, and the scenario becomes even more complex when considering the implications of each state’s outcome.”
In response to Pfeiffer’s analysis, Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon acknowledged the challenging landscape, stating in a recent memo that they view themselves as the underdogs. Dillon highlighted Trump’s strong base and high favorability ratings, suggesting that despite the optimistic media portrayals, the race remains fiercely competitive and unpredictable as Election Day approaches.