President Donald Trump and the Republican Party are getting a new warning from some of the congressional districts that could play an important role in the 2026 midterm elections.
A new survey of Latino voters across 17 competitive House districts shows Democrats holding a significant advantage on the generic congressional ballot — a notable change after Trump made major gains with Hispanic voters during the 2024 presidential election.
The Hart Research/TelevisaUnivision survey found 58% of Latino voters backing Democratic congressional candidates, compared with 35% supporting Republicans.
For the GOP, the numbers raise an important question heading into November: Can Republicans hold onto the Latino voters who helped Trump dramatically improve his performance with this important segment of the electorate in 2024?
Republicans See Warning Signs in Key House Districts
The results are particularly striking in Texas.
Across three competitive Texas congressional districts included in the survey, Latino voters reported splitting evenly between Trump and former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, 44% to 44%.
Their preferences for the 2026 congressional elections look considerably different.
Democratic House candidates now receive 56% support from Latino voters surveyed in those districts, while Republicans receive 36%.
California produced another sizable Democratic advantage. In the competitive districts surveyed there, 57% said they currently support Democratic candidates, compared with 33% backing Republicans.
Those numbers don’t guarantee what will happen on Election Day. Polls provide snapshots of voter sentiment, and individual House races can be influenced by candidates, local issues, turnout and events between now and November.
Still, with control of Congress at stake, movement among voters in competitive districts is something both parties have reason to watch closely.
Some Trump Voters Are Shifting Toward Democrats
Perhaps one of the most significant findings involves people who previously voted for Trump.
According to the survey, 11% of Latino respondents who said they supported Trump in the 2024 presidential election now say they plan to vote for Democratic congressional candidates in 2026.
That doesn’t necessarily mean those voters have permanently abandoned Trump or the Republican Party.
Latino Americans represent a large and politically diverse electorate, and their priorities can vary considerably depending on location, economic circumstances and other factors.
Kate Coleman, a senior vice president at TelevisaUnivision, told Axios that Latino voters aren’t permanently attached to either political party and are paying attention to how candidates address their concerns.
The new numbers suggest Republicans may have to compete again for some voters they successfully brought into Trump’s coalition just two years ago.
Cost of Living Emerges as a Major Problem
While immigration receives enormous attention in Washington, the economy remains especially important to the Latino voters surveyed.
The poll found 65% disapproved of Trump’s handling of high prices and the cost of living.
Overall, 63% disapproved of Trump’s job performance as president, while 36% approved.
Those findings could be important because economic issues helped shape the political environment during the 2024 election.
Trump benefited from voter frustration over inflation and household expenses during his campaign against Harris. Republicans now face the challenge of defending their own economic record while voters continue evaluating prices, wages and their personal finances.
For many households, political arguments in Washington may take a back seat to practical questions involving grocery bills, housing, gasoline, utilities and retirement expenses.
That makes the cost of living an issue both parties are likely to emphasize heavily before Election Day.
Immigration Policies Also Face Resistance
Trump’s approach to immigration enforcement is another source of dissatisfaction among respondents.
The survey found 62% disapproved of his handling of immigration enforcement and deportations. It also found 64% expressing disapproval of Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
However, the findings shouldn’t be interpreted as a blanket rejection of stricter border policies.
The survey indicates that the economy currently ranks ahead of immigration as a concern for these voters, and attitudes toward border security, illegal immigration and deportation can differ depending on the specific policy being considered.
That distinction could prove important for Republicans.
Trump has made border security and immigration enforcement central parts of his political identity, and the GOP will have to determine how to defend those policies while addressing concerns among voters who may disagree with aspects of the administration’s enforcement strategy.
Trump Made Historic Gains With Hispanic Voters in 2024
The latest numbers stand out because of how dramatically the political landscape changed during the previous presidential election.
According to Pew Research Center’s analysis of validated voters, Trump received 48% of the Hispanic vote in 2024, compared with 51% for Harris.
Four years earlier, Trump received only 36% of the Hispanic vote.
That 12-point increase represented one of the most significant changes in Trump’s 2024 electoral coalition and helped demonstrate that Hispanic voters could no longer automatically be viewed as a reliably Democratic voting bloc.
Republicans hoped those gains represented a longer-term political realignment.
The latest battleground polling suggests that conclusion may have been premature.
Latino Voters Could Remain Highly Competitive
There is another important lesson in the numbers: Latino voters remain politically competitive.
Some supported Trump because of the economy. Others favored his approach to border security or shared Republican positions on cultural and social issues. Still others remained loyal Democratic voters.
The diversity within the electorate means neither political party can safely assume it has permanent support.
That creates both a problem and an opportunity for Republicans.
Voters who moved toward Trump once could potentially move toward Republicans again. But the GOP may have to convince them that its policies are improving their everyday lives.
Democrats face their own challenge: turning dissatisfaction with the current administration into actual votes for Democratic congressional candidates.
Democrats Have Vulnerabilities of Their Own
Despite the favorable polling numbers, Democrats aren’t without potential problems among Latino voters.
One issue Republicans have increasingly emphasized is the influence of democratic socialist candidates and policies within the Democratic Party.
That debate can have particular resonance among some voters with personal or family connections to countries such as Cuba and Venezuela, where socialism and authoritarian government have complicated political histories.
Republicans are likely to continue drawing contrasts between their economic agenda and proposals from the Democratic Party’s progressive wing.
Democrats, meanwhile, will have to balance competing factions within their coalition while trying to maintain the voters currently moving in their direction.
That makes the battle for Latino support considerably more complicated than simply looking at which party leads in one poll.
Why These Battleground Numbers Matter
The fight for control of the House is being concentrated in a relatively limited number of competitive congressional districts.
That means even modest changes among important groups of voters can matter.
Trump’s improvement among Hispanic voters was one of the major political developments of the 2024 election. Republicans hoped to build on those gains and create a broader, more durable coalition heading into future elections.
The new Hart Research/TelevisaUnivision poll suggests the GOP still has work to do.
But it is important to keep the findings in perspective.
This is one survey of Latino registered voters in 17 battleground congressional districts, not a nationwide prediction of the November results. Congressional elections are individual contests, and voter preferences can change during the remaining weeks of a campaign.
The Bottom Line
Republicans successfully made major inroads with Hispanic voters in 2024, helping Trump come close to splitting their presidential vote with Democrats.
Two years later, some of those gains appear to be under pressure in competitive House districts.
The economy and cost of living are emerging as particularly important concerns, while Trump’s immigration enforcement policies are also receiving negative marks from many of the Latino voters surveyed.
For Republicans, the challenge is straightforward: persuade voters who supported Trump in 2024 that GOP control of Congress remains in their economic and political interests.
For Democrats, favorable polling creates a different challenge. They still have to turn current support into turnout on Election Day while navigating ideological divisions within their own party.
The Hart Research/TelevisaUnivision survey was conducted Aug. 6-17, 2026, among 1,500 registered Latino voters across 17 competitive congressional districts.
With control of Congress at stake, Latino voters in America’s battleground districts remain an important constituency both parties are fighting to win.