Democrats can’t even wrap their heads around this.
In the 2024 election, President-elect Donald Trump saw significant gains in California, capturing over 40% of the vote— the highest for a GOP presidential candidate in the state since George W. Bush’s re-election in 2004. While California remains a stronghold for Democrats, these numbers reveal a shift in the political landscape that Democrats, particularly Governor Gavin Newsom, may be overlooking.
Trump’s vote share has been rising in California since 2016, when he won 31% of the vote, followed by 34% in 2020. Despite a conservative exodus of residents leaving for states like Florida and Texas, Trump managed to increase his share by 6 percentage points, signaling that California’s electorate is not as solidly liberal as many think. His strong performance in the Golden State underscores the growing disillusionment with far-left policies and the rising support for conservative ideas.
Experts highlight that while California’s legislature has moved sharply to the left, the voters themselves are more moderate. Susan Shelley, Vice President of Communications for the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, points to ballot measures and local elections as proof that Californians are dissatisfied with progressive overreach. For example, Proposition 36, which reversed some of Los Angeles County’s soft-on-crime policies, passed overwhelmingly. Similarly, Proposition 5, which would have led to higher property taxes, was rejected.
Shelley also notes that California’s energy policies, particularly the state’s stringent clean-energy mandates, have led to higher utility bills for residents. Trump’s promise to boost domestic energy production and lower costs resonates strongly with voters who feel the sting of rising energy prices under Governor Newsom’s policies.
Moreover, California’s controversial social policies, such as the push to allow taxpayer-funded sex change surgeries for inmates and the new law barring schools from notifying parents about their children’s gender identity, have sparked backlash. Many voters, particularly parents, are frustrated by the progressive agenda pushed by Newsom and the Biden administration.
Lance Christensen, a political expert with the California Policy Center, explains that Newsom’s progressive policies have only strengthened Trump’s appeal in the state. The cultural battles around issues like gender identity in schools and the encroachment on parental rights have alienated many moderates and even some liberals. As more voters see these policies being pushed at the federal level by the Biden-Harris administration, they are looking for a strong alternative— one that Trump promises to provide.
In response to Trump’s growing support in the state, Governor Newsom has doubled down, calling a special session of the legislature to counter any potential challenges to California’s progressive laws. He declared, “California is ready to fight,” emphasizing the state’s commitment to issues like climate action and reproductive rights. While Newsom’s rhetoric may rally his base, it risks further alienating a growing number of Californians who are tired of the radical left’s grip on state politics.
Trump’s rising numbers in California are not just a fluke; they reflect a larger shift toward conservatism that could reshape the state’s political future. Californians are waking up to the realities of extreme liberal policies, and while it may take time for this shift to manifest in a full-blown red wave, there is no doubt that California is no longer the untouchable blue state it once was.