America is now staring down a troubling surge in mass-layoff warnings, according to new economic data.
These alerts suggest the U.S. job market may be weakening far faster than experts predicted—despite President Trump’s aggressive efforts to rebuild the economy, restore manufacturing, and reverse years of Biden-era decline.
A fresh analysis from Goldman Sachs reveals that Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) alerts—official notices companies must file before major layoffs—have climbed to their highest level since 2016, outside the pandemic surge. For millions of American workers, this is a flashing red light.
Economists Warn: The Labor Market Firewall Is Breaking
Throughout 2025, the job market has been stuck in what Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell labeled a “low-hire, low-fire” freeze. Hiring stalled. Layoffs stayed artificially low. And many economists hoped that stability alone would prevent a recession.
Moody’s economist Mark Zandi even described low layoffs as the final “firewall” shielding the nation from a major downturn.
But that firewall is now cracking.
Multiple research groups—including Goldman Sachs—are documenting a sharp rise in corporate layoffs at the very moment when hiring remains historically weak. That combination is particularly dangerous for older Americans who depend on consistent employment, stable retirement savings, and predictable markets.
AI, Rising Costs, and Biden-Era Economic Damage Fuel Job Cuts
Goldman’s researchers examined earnings calls from Russell 3000 companies and uncovered significant red flags:
- Layoff mentions are rising sharply.
- Nearly half of tech-sector layoff discussions referenced AI replacing human jobs.
- Businesses warn of softening consumer spending and rising operating costs—issues rooted in the economic chaos inherited by the Trump administration.
Adding to the concern is a new report from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas:
- 153,074 job cuts announced in October (up 175% from last year)
- Layoffs surged 183% from September
- 1.1 million job cuts announced so far in 2025
- Cuts are up 65% from the same period in 2024
- Job eliminations are already 44% higher than all of last year
The U.S. hasn’t seen numbers this high since 2020.
Workplace analyst Andy Challenger warned that AI adoption, weaker consumer confidence, and higher costs are driving companies toward hiring freezes and aggressive belt-tightening.
Experts Say This Trend Could Hit Older Workers Hardest
Goldman economists Manuel Abecasis and Pierfrancesco Mei issued a stark message:
If layoffs keep rising, the weak hiring market will make it harder than usual for unemployed Americans to find new jobs—especially older workers.
Economist Justin Wolfers noted that unemployment is edging up quietly, “a tenth of a point here, a tenth of a point there,” slowly turning a once-tight labor market into a noticeably weaker one.
Claims Are Low for Now – But Layoffs Are Coming
The Labor Department reports that 216,000 Americans filed for unemployment last week, a slight improvement from 222,000 the week prior.
But these numbers are misleading.
WARN notices are filed 60 days before layoffs occur, meaning the flood of alerts we’re seeing today likely represents the job cuts Americans will feel this winter.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas data also tends to precede real layoffs by about two months, further confirming what many economists fear:
A major wave of job cuts may already be locked in.
Bottom Line: The Job Market Is Turning Fast
Despite President Trump’s push to restore American strength, reverse globalist trade deals, and revive the workforce, corporate America appears to be bracing for a difficult period—shaped heavily by AI disruptions, weakened hiring, and the lingering economic damage of the previous administration.
Older Americans, retirees, and near-retirees may face the greatest risk as companies trim payrolls and tighten budgets.