President Donald Trump’s latest approval numbers—ten months into his second term—paint a clear picture of a sharply divided nation.
But they also reveal something the mainstream media refuses to acknowledge: Trump’s conservative foundation remains rock-solid, especially across the heartland.
A new Civiqs breakdown shows that while blue states continue their predictable opposition, Trump’s support in traditional Republican states remains overwhelming, reinforcing the strength of his America First movement heading into the 2026 midterms.
Red States Continue to Rally Behind President Trump
In Republican-led states, Trump’s approval remains consistently strong, driven by support for his economic policies, energy independence agenda, immigration crackdowns, and tough foreign policy posture.
According to the latest survey, President Trump holds major positive net approval in:
- Wyoming: +34%
- West Virginia: +27%
- Idaho: +23%
- North Dakota: +18%
- Montana: +17%
- Oklahoma: +17%
Other states showing strong, dependable approval include:
- Alabama: +16%
- South Dakota: +16%
- Arkansas: +14%
- Kentucky: +12%
- Utah: +12%
These numbers highlight a powerful, deeply rooted coalition that continues to trust Trump’s leadership—particularly older voters, rural communities, small business owners, and American energy workers.
Blue States Still Oppose Trump — Even as Their Problems Grow
In long-time Democrat strongholds, resistance remains high—driven largely by entrenched political machines, big-city media, and decades of liberal policy failures.
Trump’s worst-performing states include:
- Hawaii: -55%
- Vermont: -50%
- Maryland: -44%
- Massachusetts: -42%
- California & Rhode Island: -40%
- Washington & Oregon: -36%
And in major blue population centers:
- New York: -32%
- Illinois: -29%
These numbers reflect the deep cultural divide between conservative, working-class America and heavily urbanized Democratic regions.
The Critical Battlegrounds Tell the Real Story
The states that decided the 2024 election remain the most competitive—and the most important for the 2026 midterms.
Trump’s current net approval ratings in key swing states:
- Arizona: -12%
- Pennsylvania: -13%
- Michigan: -15%
- Nevada: -15%
- Georgia: -14%
- Wisconsin: -11%
- North Carolina: -8%
- Florida, Texas & Ohio: -6%
These numbers show a challenging map, but also enormous opportunity—especially as economic frustrations grow and Biden-era damage remains fresh in voters’ minds.
National Polls Reflect a Country That’s Split — Not a Weak President
Most national trackers place Trump’s approval around 42%, consistent with levels from his first term and reflective of a divided public—not a loss of confidence.
A Fox News poll recently found 38% approval on the economy, though many conservatives argue the figure is influenced by biased questioning and selective coverage.
Polling analyst Nate Silver notes that Trump’s disapproval (55.9%) is slightly higher than at this point in his first term, but also points out that Trump’s net approval remains steadier than expected, especially considering the nonstop media opposition.
Republican pollsters say the pattern is simple:
- Trump energizes his supporters.
- Trump motivates Democrats to turn out in higher numbers.
This dynamic will shape every strategic decision heading into 2026.
The 2026 Midterms: A Defining Challenge
History shows that presidents with approval ratings below 50% often see their parties lose seats during midterms. The question now is whether Trump can shift momentum in battleground states before voters head to the polls.
What’s at stake:
- Control of the House
- Control of the Senate
- Trump’s legislative agenda
- Border security
- Tax policy
- Energy dominance
- America First foreign policy
A strong showing in 2026 could give Trump the congressional support he needs to deliver the sweeping reforms his voters expect.
The Bottom Line
President Trump remains deeply supported across red America, even as blue states continue their predictable resistance. The battle for the 2026 midterms will be fought in the suburbs, the industrial Midwest, Sun Belt swing states, and energy-heavy regions where voters feel the direct impact of national policy.
Trump’s ability to strengthen his approval in swing states—and overcome years of media hostility—will determine the future of the America First movement and the direction of the country itself.