Here’s what the GOP is fearful of.
Republicans in Texas are growing increasingly concerned after a surprisingly competitive primary election set up a high-stakes runoff between Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. With Democrats now unified behind their candidate, some GOP strategists worry the race could become more challenging than expected heading into the November election.
The runoff has also placed new pressure on President Donald Trump, whose endorsement could play a decisive role in determining the Republican nominee.
Texas Senate Race Heads to High-Stakes Runoff
Early primary results showed an extremely tight race between Cornyn and Paxton. Cornyn finished with roughly 41.9 percent of the vote, while Paxton followed closely with 40.7 percent. Rep. Wesley Hunt finished third and will not advance to the runoff election scheduled for May.
The narrow margin means the battle for the Republican nomination is far from over.
Meanwhile, Democrats have already rallied behind state Rep. James Talarico, who won the Democratic primary after defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett. Democrats have long targeted Texas as a possible pickup opportunity, and party leaders believe the general election could become competitive depending on which Republican emerges from the runoff.
Trump Endorsement Could Decide the Race
Many Republican strategists believe President Trump’s endorsement could dramatically reshape the race.
One Republican operative involved in Senate campaigns said the stakes increased immediately after Democrats selected Talarico as their nominee.
“Talarico becoming the nominee makes it even more important that President Trump weighs in,” the strategist said. “A Trump endorsement could quickly unify Republican voters.”
President Trump hinted Wednesday that an endorsement decision is coming soon.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump emphasized the strong track record of his political endorsements.
Trump highlighted the strength of his political backing in a social media post, saying that candidates he supports within the Republican Party tend to win by large margins — particularly in Texas. He added that he plans to announce his endorsement in the race in the near future.
Trump also suggested that once he announces his decision, the candidate who does not receive his support should consider stepping aside in order to unite the party before the general election.
Cornyn Shows Unexpected Momentum
Despite entering the race with skepticism from some conservative voters, Sen. Cornyn performed stronger than many political observers expected.
One Republican strategist said the primary results gave Cornyn new momentum heading into the runoff.
“I think this performance puts Cornyn in a stronger position,” the strategist said. “If President Trump endorses him, that could push him over the finish line.”
The strategist also noted that the primary electorate turned out differently than many analysts predicted.
“Many assumed the most conservative voters would dominate the primary,” the strategist said. “But several factors changed the dynamics — including a massive amount of spending from Republican leadership groups.”
Reports indicate establishment-aligned organizations spent tens of millions of dollars supporting Cornyn during the primary contest.
Polling Shows Trump’s Influence Remains Powerful
Recent polling highlights just how influential a Trump endorsement could be in the Republican runoff.
A University of Houston Hobby School poll found that 55 percent of Republican primary voters said they would be more likely to support a candidate endorsed by President Trump.
Brendan Steinhauser, a Republican strategist and former Cornyn campaign manager, said Trump’s backing could also impact turnout.
“If Trump endorses Cornyn, that could significantly reshape turnout patterns,” Steinhauser said. “The conservative activist base pays close attention to his endorsements.”
Both Candidates Face Political Challenges
Both candidates heading into the runoff carry political baggage that could influence voters.
Cornyn has faced criticism from some conservatives over his role in negotiating bipartisan gun legislation following the tragic Uvalde school shooting in 2022.
He also previously questioned whether Trump could win another presidential election, though Cornyn later reversed his position and endorsed Trump, saying the president had proven him wrong.
Paxton has faced his own controversies. His wife, Texas state Sen. Angela Paxton, filed for divorce last year citing “biblical grounds” after nearly four decades of marriage. Court filings alleged marital infidelity.
Additionally, Paxton was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 before being acquitted by the Texas Senate after a high-profile trial.
General Election Could Be Competitive
Polling suggests the November general election could be close regardless of which Republican wins the runoff.
An Emerson College poll showed Paxton tied with Democrat James Talarico at 46 percent each in a hypothetical matchup. The same survey showed Cornyn holding a slight advantage over Talarico, 47 percent to 44 percent.
Another University of Houston poll produced similar results, showing both Republican candidates with narrow leads over the Democrat.
Still, some Republican insiders believe the runoff itself could determine how strong the GOP nominee is heading into the fall election.
Dan Eberhart, a Republican donor supporting Paxton, argued that the runoff environment could favor the attorney general.
“This was Cornyn’s chance to win the primary outright and avoid a runoff,” Eberhart said. “Runoff voters tend to be more conservative, which could benefit Paxton.”
GOP Leaders Worry About Divisive Primary Battle
Some Republican strategists warn that a prolonged and expensive runoff battle could ultimately benefit Democrats if the party becomes too divided.
“If this race continues without clear direction from party leadership, it could get ugly,” one strategist said. “It could also get extremely expensive.”
The concern among some GOP leaders is that a bruising primary fight could weaken the eventual nominee before the general election campaign even begins.
With the runoff approaching and President Trump expected to announce his endorsement soon, the Texas Senate race is quickly becoming one of the most closely watched political battles in the country.