New poll reveals strong momentum for Trump-backed conservatives in the Sunshine State
Florida’s 2026 gubernatorial race is already making headlines — and according to a new poll, Republicans are in the driver’s seat. Backed by former President Donald Trump and energized by years of conservative victories, GOP contenders are pulling ahead, while Democrats struggle to find a foothold.
A statewide poll by the James Madison Institute, conducted May 5-7, surveyed 1,200 likely voters and uncovered a key trend: conservative leadership still resonates deeply with Florida voters, especially those 50 and older.
Trump-Endorsed Byron Donalds Leads the Pack
In a hypothetical matchup, Rep. Byron Donalds, proudly endorsed by President Trump, leads Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava 38% to 34%. State Sen. Jason Pizzo, a former Democrat, trails far behind at 5%. A notable 23% of voters remain undecided — a critical group in a high-stakes election.
Donalds’ support skyrockets to 44% when voters are informed of Trump’s endorsement. That endorsement could be the game-changer that secures the GOP nomination and keeps Florida on its America First trajectory.
Casey DeSantis Shows Strong Potential
Florida’s First Lady, Casey DeSantis, has not announced her candidacy, but the poll shows she commands real strength. In a potential matchup, she beats Levine Cava 39% to 35%, with Pizzo at 8% and 18% still undecided.
Even without declaring, her high name recognition, conservative credentials, and support from patriotic families and seniors across the state make her a serious contender.
Florida Voters Still Strongly Favor the Right
In 2024, Florida voted decisively for President Trump, defeating Kamala Harris by a 13-point margin. That trend continues in 2026, with voters making it clear: they want freedom over federal control, parental rights in education, and safe, prosperous communities.
In the GOP primary field:
- Casey DeSantis leads with 29%
- Byron Donalds follows at 28%
- Matt Gaetz gets 10%
- Jeanette Nuñez polls at 7%
- Francis Suarez sits at 5%
Except for Donalds, none have formally entered the race — but all are feeling the pressure as the base rallies behind the Trump agenda.
Democrats Struggle to Compete
Levine Cava leads a fractured Democrat field at 32%, followed by Gwen Graham (13%), David Jolly (10%), and Lauren Book (7%). But low enthusiasm and past statewide losses leave Democrats with an uphill battle.
Even some left-leaning analysts admit the odds are long. “There’s a path,” said political science professor J. Edwin Benton, “but only if Democrats can finally organize — which they haven’t done in years.”
Florida Remains a Conservative Stronghold
Despite media narratives, President Trump’s approval in Florida remains solid. A May 7 Civiqs poll showed 48% approval vs. 49% disapproval — near parity, and far from a collapse.
For Floridians, key issues remain front and center:
- Protecting retirement security
- Upholding constitutional rights
- Standing up to federal overreach
- Supporting law enforcement and border security
The Bottom Line for 2026
With Trump’s influence holding strong, Casey DeSantis and Byron Donalds both commanding early leads, and Democrats struggling to inspire voters, Republicans are poised to keep Florida red — and keep the momentum going into the 2028 national elections.
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